Is it a curse to be in the First Four? Well, it sure beats the fate of angry teams who were left out of the NCAA Tournament entirely. Rick Pitino of St. John’s, for example, is so upset that he won’t even let his team play in the NIT.
So the Virginia Cavaliers and Colorado State Rams should feel thankful they still have a chance. They will collide in a “play-in” game. The winner gets into the general field of 64 in the “Big Dance.” The prize at the end is a date with the Texas Longhorns in the Midwest Regional.
The Colorado State-Virginia clash takes place on Tuesday night at 9:10 PM ET. The site is familiar to anyone who has followed this tourney. The University of Dayton Arena plays host. Their own team, the Flyers, will be in the West Regional for its first-round game against Nevada.
The odds have Colorado State as a slight favorite
We look at the March Madness odds as they are posted at BetOnline. And when we do, the Rams, coached by Niko Medved, are favored:
Colorado State Rams vs. Virginia Cavaliers Odds
| Team | SP/RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | -2.5 (-115) | 121 ( -110 ) | -145 |  |
| Virginia | -2.5 (-115) | 121 ( -110 ) | +125 | |
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What does Colorado State bring to the table?
The Rams stood out in the Mountain West, a conference that received six bids to the Big Dance. They get a lot of leadership from senior point guard Isaiah Stevens. He’s one of those guys who has used five years of eligibility. And he is third in the country in assists. So the offense starts with him.
Stevens had five turnovers in the Mountain West tournament loss against New Mexico. But in his previous six games, he had a ratio of 34 assists to ten turnovers. He’s had double-digit assists on seven occasions. And he is CSU’s best shooter from long range. At 42.7% from beyond the arc, he is the guy Virginia’s defense has to pay extra attention to.
It should be noted that Colorado State shoots much better from inside (57.6%) than outside (33.3%) the three-point arc.
What does Virginia bring to the table?
The Cavs have played the Pack-Line defense for as long as Tony Bennett has been the coach. It requires plenty of discipline, but there are certain benefits. Teams that can execute it are able to be tough against both three-pointers and two-pointers. They can greatly slow down penetration and passes to the inside. In that way it’s a little like the matchup zone.
Virginia has held opponents to just 30.4% shooting beyond the arc and just 46.7% on two-pointers. This is a challenge for Colorado State, which is 33% from downtown but thrives on two-pointers. They shoot 57.6% inside the three-point line, which is ninth best in the nation. Will they be able to accomplish that against Virginia?
The Rams can forget about forcing a lot of turnovers against this very careful team. Virginia has a veteran point guard in Reece Beekman, who leads the nation in assist rate. The Cavaliers have lost nine games by double digits. That’s a bit of a concern.
So what’s our conclusion about the Colorado State – Virginia game?
This might be an advantageous situation for Virginia in terms of style. CSU isn’t going to run much; they are very deliberate. And that won’t make Virginia uncomfortable in the least, Colorado State is 305th in offensive rebounding percentage, so Virginia can shut down the boards. And they can make things more difficult from close and mid-range.
This isn’t UVa’s best year, but they are viable in this role. So we’ll take the points.
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