Super Bowl 54 Betting: Myths About the San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl LIV Betting Analysis and Odds

The San Francisco 49ers got off to a huge start this season. And they even looked like they might go through the whole year undefeated. That didn’t happen, of course, but they won home-field advantage in the NFC anyway.

Perhaps one of the problems with the Niners is that they are not as flashy as Sunday’s Super Bowl opponent. The Kansas City Chiefs can get the football down the field with great speed. And they have the league’s reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. They also made two spectacular comebacks in the playoffs to get here. The Niners are more of a lunchpail, “ground-and-pound” team. At least that is the perception.

So what is true and what isn’t? We’ll explore it in this story. Super Bowl 54 takes place at 6:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. And if you’re with BetAnySports, you can get HUGE opportunities with props. You can also get reduced juice and real-time wagering with Sports Betting Ultra.

Here is their line on Sunday’s game:

Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Odds

49ers +1 (-110) 54½ (-110) EV
Chiefs -1 (-110) 54½ (-110) -120
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Now let’s explore some of the myths as they surround the 49ers:

“The Niners can’t deal with all the speed of the Chiefs’ receivers”

Well, they seem to have dealt with everyone else on their schedule this season. Kansas City has some wideouts with some real speed. Tyreek Hill runs a 4.29-second 40 yard dash. Mecole Hardman, the rookie, is at 4.33. And Sammy Watkins is at 4.43. But just look at the way San Francisco has defended against the opposition in the passing game. Over the course of the season, only one team (Buffalo) has allowed an “explosive” pass play a lower percentage of the time. That means these guys are able to get back in coverage and prevent the big play. That’s the kind of thing where, if successful, it would make KC move down the field gradually. And at that point the lack of a big-time running game might hurt the Chiefs.

“The Niners can’t get the ball down the field”

What a lot of people don’t realize is that it isn’t the Chiefs who are the most “explosive” team through the air. It is the 49ers. And we speak of a team’s ability to put together passing plays that go at least 20 yards as “explosive.” The 49ers are #1 in the NFL in pass explosiveness, producing such passing plays 12% of the time. And Jimmy Garoppolo completes passes 15 or more yards past the line of scrimmage with a higher accuracy rate than anyone. Remember that tight end George Kitlte, an All-Pro, averaged 15.6 yards a catch last season, which is huge. And these San Francisco receivers are very good running after the catch. So don’t have any illusions about the 49ers’ need to “dink-and-dunk” their way down the field. It doesn’t have to be that way.

“The 49ers need to bring blitzes to put pressure on Patrick Mahomes”

No. In fact, quite the contrary. The Niners’ style is different than Kansas City’s in that they make sure they don’t rely on the blitz. They actually send blitzes at a rate that is the third-lowest in the league. Yet they are able to generate the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL. To rush with just four people you have to have a lot of skill and talent. And that is exactly what the Niners have upfront. All four people – DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa and Dee Ford – were first-round draft picks.

Furthermore, it behooves them NOT to blitz, because, since the beginning of last season, Mahomes has 23 TD passes and just one interception when he is facing five or more pass rushers. What San Francisco needs to do is get a pass rush with four players and keep seven back in coverage. If they can do that at anywhere near the rate they did up to this point, they will win.

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