Statisticians Predict Betting Favorites to Win the World Cup

Top Betting Teams to Win the World Cup according to experts

Offshore gambling sites can tell you the odds of Brazil or Germany winning the 2018 World Cup. But it doesn’t take a genius to figure out those two countries are the favorites to conquer the global tournament. It does take a professor from the Department of Statistics at the University of Innsbruck to determine the probabilities, though. Prof. Achim Zeileis may not quite be a genius, but he’s definitely smarter’n you and me.

He, along with colleagues, has calculated the winning probabilities for all participants in football competitions for a few years now. These colleagues belong to the Vienna University of Economics and Business. Their findings are based on what they call the “bookmakers’ consensus model.” This model correctly predicted the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. It also predicted three out of four semifinalists at the 2014 FIFA World Cup. So you see, this is not science fiction. It’s science fact.

Favorites Betting Teams to win the World Cup

Brazil

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +400
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 16.6%

The Green-and-Yellow is always a favorite regardless of the circumstances. But you know what doesn’t hurt their chances? The fact that captain, star, and non-conformist Neymar doesn’t seem to be any worse for wear following a three-month absence.

Germany

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +425
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 15.8%

The Germans are the current reigning and defending champions. Not unlike Brazil, Germany recently received good news. Their own captain and leader, goalie Manuel Neuer, was included in the official squad list after an eight-month absence.

Spain

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +600
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 12.5%

Zeileis et al already once predicted that Spain would win the 2010 World Cup. So the fact that they have fewer probabilities this time around does not bode well for the Spaniards. And as it turns out, offshore gambling sites don’t seem to have as much faith in Spain either.

France

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +575
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 12.1%

Could Russia be France’s manager Didier Deschamps very own Waterloo? Like Napoleon’s original Waterloo. Which happened to be the actual Waterloo. But Russia itself was sort of a figurative Waterloo for Napoleon. Could Russia be France’s manager Didier Deschamps very own Waterloo, etc., etc., etc.

Argentina

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +850
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 8.4%

Our fine statisticians seem to have as much love for Argentinian star Lionel Messi as the Palestinians do. Or, for that matter, as much as offshore gambling sites do. At least they’re not ready to burn the pint-sized striker in effigy, should he play Israel in Jerusalem.

Belgium

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +1000
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 7.3%

Could it be true that misery loves Kompany? Belgium’s center back and captain Vincent Kompany has been included in the squad’s World Cup roster. However, a muscle injury he recently suffered could still have him miss a second major tournament. Kompany already missed the Euro 16.

England

  • Betting odds to win the World Cup: +1800
  • Probability of winning the World Cup: 4.9%

It’s a great time to be English. But only if your first name is Gareth and your last name is Bale. If your first name is Gareth but your last name is Southgate, then apparently you have a lot to work on. As for the rest of the Queen’s subjects, inventing the sport sadly doesn’t necessarily make you the best at it.

The above odds were taken from GTBets.eu, considered one of the best online sportsbook websites.

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