Fiesta Bowl Betting Analysis & Pick: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State Odds
Neither the side nor total have seen much early movement. The spread has been sitting at Notre Dame -2 at sportsbooks for US players. The total has remained at 44.5. It’s uncharted point spread territory for both schools. Oklahoma State has been the favorite in each of its past six games. Notre Dame laid more than seven points in five of its past six.
It’s been over a quarter of a century since Notre Dame (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) has won a New Year’s Six bowl game. Marcus Freeman looks to end that skid when he takes Brian Kelly’s place on the Irish sideline. Oklahoma State (11-2, 9-3-1) has covered 12 of its past 14 games as an underdog at the best online sportsbooks.
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State Fiesta Bowl Odds by MyBookie.ag
|Oklahoma State||+2 ( -110 )||45 ( -110 )||+110|
|Notre Dame||-2 ( -110 )||45 ( -110 )||-130|
Betting Oklahoma State Cowboys
It’s going to be interesting to see if the Cowboys can keep playing elite defense after they lost their defensive coordinator. Jim Knowles left for Ohio State earlier this month. Head coach Mike Gundy won’t name an interim DC ahead of the Fiesta Bowl.
Under Knowles, Oklahoma State ranked No. 1 in sacks and third in yards allowed per game. Also fourth in yards allowed per play. And fifth against the run and 10th versus the pass. Defensive ends Brock Martin and Collin Oliver bookend the Cowboys’ pass rush.
They combine for 18.5 sacks this year. That defense, together with a steady but unimpressive offense, has made Oklahoma State an undervalued commodity in the point spread market. The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games agains teams with winning SU records and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog. All according to sportsbooks to US players.
The Cowboys have been underrated all season. Here we get a chance to buy low on them as a result of their 21-16 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma State should have won that game. They gained 11 more first downs than the Bears. But the Cowboys screwed the pooch with four turnovers and two drives that finished inside the Baylor five-yard line.
Betting Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish saw longtime coach Brian Kelly leave them for LSU. Defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman was appointed the team’s head coach. He will coach Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. The head coach spot may have been filled, but Notre Dame still has a big hole at running back after Kyren Williams declared for the NFL draft.
With Williams, Notre Dame rushed for at least 150 yards in each of its last seven games. They went 7-0 SU and ATS in that stretch. Sophomore Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs are the top candidates to replace Williams. He had started Notre Dame’s past 24 games.
Notre Dame may not be ranked in the top 25 in total yards allowed. But Notre Dame did allow the fourth-lowest touchdown percentage in the red zone this season. That is a big reason the Irish finished ranked 10th in points allowed per game. The unit was in particular dominant in November. They allowed just 23 points combined in the last four games.
Backing a team that just made a coaching change isn’t a good idea for users of sportsbooks for US players. A crucial element will be whether the Irish can keep getting stops in the red zone against a Cowboys offense that has experienced difficulty making big plays.
Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State Fiesta Bowl Pick
Take Oklahoma State and the points here.