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Dolphins vs. Patriots on Week 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (09/12/2021)

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • September 10th, 2021
  • Category:

The best USA sportsbooks favor the Patriots over the Dolphins on September 12, 2021, 4:25 PM ET at Gillette Stadium.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Odds by MyBookie.ag

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Dolphins+3 ( -115 )43½ ( -110 )+130
Patriots-3 ( -105 )43½ ( -110 )-150
Bet Now on this Game

Betting Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins head to Foxboro as road dogs, according to the best online sportsbooks. The Dolphins averaged 246.1 passing yards per game last season; the Patriots allowed 232.6 passing yards. Miami averaged 3.9 yards per carry; 4.5 yards per rushing attempt New England surrendered. The Dolphins conceded 34 sacks, ranking 15th in the NFL. Miami converted 38.6% of its third-down plays;
New England’s defense allowed third-down conversions at a 40.9 percentage.

Miami Stats

The Samoan Bulldozer Tua Tagovailoa had 1,814 passing yards (113.4 yards per game) last season. The Hawaiian Behemoth went 186-for-290 (64.1% completion percentage). The Polynesian Polyphemus threw 11 touchdowns and five picks. Not too shabby for the Leviathan of the South Seas.

Myles Gaskin had 142 carries for 584 rushing yards. He scored three touchdowns. Also he caught 41 passes for 388 yards (32.3 receiving yards per game). He scored two touchdowns through the air. Malcolm Brown accrued 419 rushing yards on 101 carries (26.2 yards per game).

He scored five touchdowns on the ground.
DeVante Parker nabbed 63 passes on 103 targets for 793 yards (49.6 yards per game). He scored four touchdowns. Mike Gesicki’s 53 catches were good for 703 yards and six TDs.

He posted 43.9 receiving yards per game on 85 targets.
Emmanuel Ogbah had 9.0 sacks, 10.5 TFL and 59 tackles. Jerome Baker recorded 154 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 7.0 sacks. Xavien Howard caught 10 interceptions with 62 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 20 passes defended.

Per the best USA sportsbooks, Miami is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Miami is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games. Dolphins are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against New England. Miami is 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road.

Miami is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against New England. Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent in the AFC East division. The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami’s last six games played in September.

Betting New England Patriots

The Pats are favored by the best USA sportsbooks, though not by much. The Patriots’ offense ranked 27th in the NFL last season with 20.4 points per game. They will go up against a Dolphins’ defense that allowed 21.1 per game (fifth in the NFL).

New England had the 25th-ranked offense in the league in points per play a year ago (0.33). They will face the No. 6 defense in that category. The Patriots scored on 54.2% of their red-zone trips (23rd in the league).

They will clash with the Dolphins’ No. 7 defense in that category (57.4%). New England had a 40.9% third-down conversion rate; Miami allowed third-down conversions on 31.2% of its opponents’ attempts.

Damien Harris produced 691 rushing yards (57.6 yards per game) last season. He scored two TDs. James White ran for 121 yards on 35 carries (7.6 ypg), with two rushing TDs. He caught 49 passes for 375 yards (23.4 ypg) and one TD.

Nelson Agholor grabbed 48 passes on 82 targets for 896 yards (56.0 yards per game). He scored eight touchdowns. Jakobi Meyers’ 59 catches accounted for 729 yards. He averaged 45.6 receiving yards per game on 81 targets. Kendrick Bourne nabbed 49 passes on 74 targets for 667 yards and two TDs. He averaged 41.7 yards per game.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Week 1 Pick

Pick: Pats win, cover.