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Betting NFL Week 14: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Picks and Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins NFL best bets and odds
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • December 12th, 2020
  • Category:

The best USA betting sites favor the visiting team when the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins play on Sunday in NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium. The rebuilding Dolphins are poised for a playoff spot following an 8-4 start to the season. The reigning Super Bowl champions the Chiefs are 11-1 and opened as 7.5-point road faves for Sunday’s matchup, according to the best online sportsbooks.

Kansas City enters the game at 11-1. The Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak, beating the Bills, Broncos, Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Bucs and Broncos again. Miami is 8-4 this season. The Dolphins have won back-to-back games, defeating the Jets and Bengals.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Odds by BetUs

Chiefs-7½ (-103)50½ (-110)-365
Dolphins+7½ (-117)50½ (-110)+292
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Betting Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are road favorites per the best betting sites. The Chiefs are a tough nut to crack for any team. Covering the spread against KC on the other hand is doable. Kansas City is just 0-4 ATS in its past four games.

In spite of their offensive prowess, the Chiefs rank 24th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown conversion rate at 57.5%. That number has dropped to 33.3% in their past three games. If those red-zone issues continue, it will be hard for Kansas City to cover spreads higher than a touchdown against playoff-teams on the road.

Kansas City has been on a nice streak since losing to the Raiders on October 11. There have been some close calls, though. The wins have been 26-17 over the Bills, 43-16 over the Broncos, 35-9 over the Jets, 33-31 over the Panthers, 35-31 over the Raiders, 27-24 over Tampa Bay and 22-16 over Denver.

Betting Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are home dogs according to the best betting sites. The Dolphins have improved by leaps and bounds this year. They went 5-11 in Brian Flores’ first season as head coach in 2019. The Dolphins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their past eight games. They rank second in the NFL in scoring defense.

They hold opponents to just 17.7 points per game, that number might be a little deceiving. They’ve played five games against the most incompetent offenses in the league (the Jets, Broncos, Jaguars and Joe Burrow-less Bengals). But they have also beaten stiffer competition such as the Rams and Cardinals.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Pick

Let’s take a chance on Miami here. The spread seems large enough for them to stay in the fight. Considering how close Kansas City has been playing as of late. Each of the Chiefs’ last four wins have been by six points or fewer. Three were by four or less. The Dolphins have been hit-and-miss when scoring points. But they should have more than enough in them to get within a TD here. KC still wins, but Miami can make it interesting.

Even as the Chiefs struggle to convert in the red zone, they can still score plenty of points on the board. Thanks to Pat Mahomes’s deep passing. Despite the Dolphins going 5-2 to the Under in their last seven games, the Chiefs are just a little harder to stop than the Bengals and Jets.

In fact, in Miami’s three games this season versus high-scoring teams like the Cards, Seahawks and Bills, the total number of points scored ranged between 54 and 65. The Chiefs are first in the league in yards per game with 427.6. but they rank a modest 17th in the NFL in total defense by allowing 358.2 ypg. Add that to an improving Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for Miami. As well as a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back, and you have all the elements for an Over.