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Alabama vs. Georgia National Championship Prediction, Odds and Analysis

Georgia vs. Alabama CFP National Championship Pick and best bets
  • by Anthony Carpenter
  • January 8th, 2022
  • Category:

Even with the ghastly loss in the SEC championship game, it’s Georgia that is the favorite at top US sportsbooks online over Alabama in the CFP final. This will be head coach Kirby ‘Get’ Smart’s latest shot at defeating his mentor, head coach Nick Saban, who will be coaching in his ninth national championship in 13 seasons in Alabama.

CFP National Championship Game Time & Info

Date:Monday, January 10, 2022
TV Coverage:ESPN
Location:Doosan Bears
Time:8:00 p.m. ET

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Georgia hit the oddsboards at the best online sportsbooks for the national championship as 2.5-point faves. They have since been bet to -3. This is after closing as six-point chalk in the SEC title game. The total hit the board at 52.5. It has been bet down slightly to 52.

The Bulldogs went back to looking like the best school in college football following a dominating showing in the Orange Bowl. They crushed the Michigan Wolverines 34-11 as 7.5-point faves at top sportsbooks online.

Alabama got the job done in the Cotton Bowl. They rode Brian Robinson and the running attack to a smoldering 27-6 win over Cincinnati. They easily covered the 13.5-point spread set by top sportsbooks online.

Alabama entered the SEC title tilt as a six-point underdog. Georgia appeared to be the clear-cut best team. That meant diddily squat when was all said and done the dust settled and the smoke cleared. The Crimson Tide and Bryce Young manhandled a Bulldogs defense that was lauded as one of the best of all time. They won the SEC Championship 41-24.

The 41 points the Bulldogs surrendered in that game was 30.4% of the points they had allowed all season long. This game unfolded just a little over a month ago, but there are still many questions to be heading into this rematch.

CFP National Championship Odds by BetOnline

Georgia-3 ( -105 )52 ( -110 )-147
Alabama+3 ( -115 )52 ( -110 )+127
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Can Georgia make the changes to slow down Young? Is Stetson Bennett good enough to keep the game close? How much of an issue are the Tide injuries? And can Georgia overcome the mental roadblock that is Alabama?

Georgia reminded us in the Orange Bowl why this appeared as one of the best defenses we have seen in college football since ever. The Bulldogs held the Wolverines to just 5.2 yards per play and a season-low 88 yards rushing.

That was against a Michigan offense unable to move the ball in the air. Young has already demonstrated he can plunder the Georgia secondary downfield. He threw for 421 yards in the SEC Championship game.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Pick

Having said that, we’ll see how the loss of John Metchie affects the Tide. It didn’t make a difference in the Cotton Bowl because they just ran the ball and then ran it some more. Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense did a great job of neutralizing Aiden Hutchinson. It’ll have to do likewise against Will Anderson and Alabama.

That is easier said than done. Georgia will not be able to run the ball like it did against Michigan. Bama’s third-ranked rushing defense held the Dawgs to 3.6 yards per carry. That means you have to have confidence in Bennett’s ability to move the ball down the field.

Nick Saban and Alabama own free mental real estate in Georgia’s mind. That’s not a decisive factor, but if the Tide can get out to an early lead, it is going to be a dejavu all over again feeling for sure. While we went into this game assuming we would get more value with Georgia following what happened in the SEC Championship Game, that was not the case. We think this will end up a tight close game so, it’s hard to refuse taking the points with Alabama here.

Expert Pick: Prediction: Alabama +3 (-110)