Betting USA sites favor Duke to win the 2022 ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament. This season was a down year for the conference. There are very few teams that found a spot in the AP Top-25 throughout the season. The conference had its worst year in terms of overall efficiency in the KenPom era (since 2002).
As things are now in the most recent Bracket Matrix NCAA Tournament selections, there are currently only five teams projected to be in the field. All five with the exception of best online sportsbooks favorite but Duke are hanging by a thread.
North Carolina will likely be in with their win at Duke. But Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Miami are all projected for a No. 10 seed or higher. That means they’re not a shoo-in to make the field. Taking into account that we are likely to see five teams at most in the field, there’s at least a chance that teams such as Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia or Virginia Tech could earn a bid if they win the ACC Tournament. All are rather unlikely as one can gather from their odds at betting sites. Stranger things have happened, though.
2022 ACC Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke | -130 |
| Wake Forest | +900 |
| Notre Dame | +900 |
| North Carolina | +950 |
| Virginia Tech | +1100 |
| Miami | +1200 |
| Virginia | +1700 |
| Syracuse | +5000 |
| Florida State | +5000 |
| Louisville | +9000 |
| Clemson | +9000 |
| NC State | +12000 |
| Georgia Tech | +13000 |
| Pittsburgh | +20000 |
| Boston College | +20000 |
Looking at these odds, Duke is a heavy favorite at betting sites (130). The Blue Devils won the regular season ACC Title for the first time since 2006. They have been the best team throughout most of the season.
However, we have seen them lose to a few inferior teams. For example, Miami to whom they lost at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Next in line there are Wake Forest and Notre Dame at +900. The most notable thing we have here is that Notre Dame is the No. 4 seed. This means they get a double-bye and an automatic bid to the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile Wake Forest would need to go over either Pitt or Boston College before they face Miami in the quarterfinals. Wake Forest is not likely to lose against Pitt or Boston College, but they would have to win four games in as many days to get the title.
North Carolina (+950), Virginia Tech (+1100) and Miami (+1200) are the next three in line. Virginia Tech is in the same situation as Wake Forest above. They need to win four games. The other teams are +1700 are lower.
Unless you want to go with Duke, you’re looking at a team in the group above in the +900 to +1200 range. Of those North Carolina at +950 is the most sensible. Notre Dame has a possibly tricky quarterfinal matchup versus Virginia Tech. A team to whom they lost in the regular season.
ACC Conference Conclusion
Despite not being in the picture for an at-large berth, Virginia Tech is the second-highest team in KenPom’s metrics. They are one spot ahead of North Carolina. The Hokies finished strong. They won nine of their last 11 games.
Wake Forest would have to win four games in four days to win the title. That includes beating Miami, who swept them in the regular season, as well as Duke. Their climb is too steep. North Carolina was very erratic this season. They rank 357th in Haslemetrics’ consistency metric.
The Tar Heels lost four games by at least 20 points this season. But they have a high upside as we just witnessed against Duke. Their potential road would be Virginia whom they beat by 16 points. And then either Virginia Tech or Notre Dame.
