New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs December 16, 2023 – The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, December 16th at 5:45 PM ET. The Aggies come into this matchup with a 10-4 record while the Bulldogs are 8-4 on the season. Both teams enter the fray with impressive records and the potential for a thrilling encounter, making this a must-watch for fans seeking the NCAAF bowl games betting sites best picks.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs December 16, 2023 Game Info
| When: | Saturday, December 16, 2023, at 5:45 PM ET |
| Where: | University Stadium |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Stream: | Sofascore |
Diego Pavia QB vs. Mikey Keene QB
Diego Pavia has put together an impressive campaign for the Aggies, completing 210 of 341 passes for 2,915 yards with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He boasts a strong 153.9 passer rating with his dual threat abilities also on display, rushing for over 400 yards this season. His decision making and poise under pressure have been instrumental in leading this New Mexico State offense.
On the other side, Mikey Keene helms the Bulldogs offense with 252 completions on 383 attempts, throwing for 2,596 yards and 21 touchdowns to just 9 picks. While less mobile than Pavia, Keene has shown himself to be an accurate, rhythm passer when given time in the pocket. His ability to spread the ball around and involve his playmakers will be key if Fresno State is to keep pace on the scoreboard.
Explosive Aggies Offense Poised to Overpower Bulldogs Defense
The Aggies have one of the most explosive offenses in college football, averaging over 33 points per game. Running back Star Thomas is coming off a huge performance last week, rushing for over 200 yards to spearhead the victory. With Thomas’ speed and elusiveness combined with Pavia’s dual-threat capabilities, the Bulldogs defense faces a steep challenge keeping this unit in check. Wideout Jonathan Brady is another playmaker that cannot be overlooked, as his big play ability has keyed several Aggie wins this year. If Fresno State cannot control the line of scrimmage and limit big plays, they will struggle to stop this prolific New Mexico State attack.
Bulldogs Need Balanced Attack Led by Sherrod and Brooks
While the Aggies offense grabs the headlines, the Bulldogs unit features talent of their own, namely running back Malik Sherrod and wide receiver Erik Brooks. Sherrod has been a workhorse this season, racking up 876 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns. His physical between-the-tackles running style allows Fresno State to dictate tempo and control the time of possession. If Sherrod can get going on the ground, it should open up play-action shots downfield for Keene to target top receiver Erik Brooks. Brooks is averaging nearly 13 yards per catch and has found the end zone 5 times. His quickness and route running ability gives Keene a reliable go-to threat against a suspect Aggies secondary. Establishing offensive balance will be critical if the Bulldogs hope to keep up on the scoreboard.
NCAAF Betting Odds: New Mexico State Aggies -165, Over/Under: 51
The odds favor the New Mexico State Aggies, with a moneyline of -165 and an over/under set at 51 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game is expected by the oddsmakers.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
New Mexico State are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Mexico State’s last 12 games.
New Mexico State are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Mexico State’s last 8 games against Fresno State.
New Mexico State are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
New Mexico State are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the West Division division.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends
Fresno State are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 6 games.
Fresno State are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against New Mexico State.
Fresno State are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against New Mexico State.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 5 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Picks
Considering the teams’ performance and betting trends, the New Mexico State Aggies appear to be the safer bet, especially with their impressive ATS record. However, the Bulldogs’ strong SU record, particularly against the Aggies, makes them a potential upset pick.
For those engaging with America’s sportsbook, the under might be a wise choice, given both teams’ recent trends toward lower-scoring games. Prop bets on individual player performances could also offer value, given the key players’ consistent contributions throughout the season.
Receiving Yards Prop: New Mexico State 28, Fresno State 24.
