The Minnesota Twins were a good enough ballclub in 2023 to win the American League Central, but they did so with only 87 wins.
They were an entertaining crew, with a dozen players reaching double digits in homers. Minnesota led the AL in both walks AND strikeouts, and it’s probably fair to note that when a team is known to look at a lot of pitches and work deep into counts, more K’s will usually come.
But will more wins come? And will enough of those wins come, at the right time, to vault this team into the World Series?
Here are some MLB futures to look at: (Odds by BetOnline)
| Minnesota Twins | Odds |
|---|---|
| Odds to win AL Central | -115 |
| Odds to win AL pennant | +1000 |
| Odds to win World Series | +2200 |
Bounceback for Buxton
The big news that people are keeping track of as we begin the 2024 season revolves around Brian Buxton, who was limited by injuries to just 304 at-bats last year, from which he produced 17 homers and a .204 average. He’s fragile. But he insists that his pain is gone and he is ready to assume the everyday responsibilities in center field, and if that remains the case, it’s good news for Minnesota. If not, he will wind up as the DH.
Buxton gave some indications that he could get back into form in a late spring training game against the Yankees when he had two triples and a homer off Nestor Cortes.
Correction for Correa?
And certainly, people are asking what’s up with Carlos Correa. Controversy about his injury history got in the way of a deal with the Mets, but the Twins took a shot with him. He had a poor 2023 season, hitting .230 with 16 homers. But he had three hits in the season opener. Needless to say, Minnesota can use a lot more from both Buxton and Correa.
Royce Lewis – injuries again
They also eagerly anticipate what they’re going to get out of Royce Lewis. And there’s quite an interesting story here. Lewis was the first pick in the 2017 draft, but he often got short-circuited. He did not play in the 2020 season because of the pandemic, and in 2021 he tore his ACL, leaving him idle for two seasons.
He tore the same ACL again in 2022, so it was a long road back. But when he got to Minnesota last year, he made an impact.
In 217 at-bats, Royce Lewis had 15 homers and hit .309, with a robust .372 on-base percentage. He came up big in big situations, with five grand slams. He was named Rookie of the Month in September. Then, in six postseason games, he hit four home runs, tying Kirby Puckett’s club record.
With his propensity to get on base, Lewis may ultimately become the cornerstone of this team’s offensive efforts, if he isn’t already.
But first, he’ll have more injury issues to deal with; specifically, what is being termed a “severe right quad strain” suffered on opening day, which could leave him out of the lineup until June.
Twins pride themselves on OBA
There’s some interesting support, with guys who can also get on base. Second baseman Edouard Julien had a .381 OBA, so he’ll score some runs, and if Buxton sticks in the outfield, Julien could wind up being inserted into the DH spot, as his defense is suspect.
In a league where on-base averages are dropping across the board, Minnesota offers some encouraging stuff for those who want to back them. Catcher Ryan Jeffers (.369 OBA) hit 14 homers in less than 300 at-bats. Left fielder Matt Wallner also had 14 HR’s in only 213 at-bats and posted a .370 OBA. Max Kepler, the right fielder, has some upside (24 HR’s last year).
And speaking of getting on base, the Twins have a prospect hovering around in the farm system. Emmanuel Rodriguez has a .413 OBA in minor league ball, has power, and speed, and despite being a left-handed hitter, is deadly against southpaws. Minnesota may find a place for him.
The pitching can hold up, if healthy
The Twins lost Sonny Gray (free agency – St. Louis) and Kenta Maeda (free agency – Detroit) from a rotation that had the best ERA and strikeout-walk ratio in the AL. But there may still be enough around for super-sharp manager Rocco Baldelli to call upon.
Pablo Lopez can get the job done (11-8, 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and will be the #1 starter. Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.43) had a 1.07 WHIP ratio and gives up less than two walks per nine innings. Chris Paddack has pitched seven games in the majors over the last two seasons, but in those games, he has 28 strikeouts against three walks. Joe Ryan won eleven games and had a nifty 5.8-to-1 ratio of K’s to BB’s.
The bullpen is led by Jhoan Duran, who may throw with more velocity consistently than anyone in the big leagues. In 2023, he had 27 saves and a 1.15 WHIP, and his fastball has reached almost 105 miles an hour. Coming out of the spring, he had a moderate oblique strain, with his return to be determined. But he will not miss a lot of time.
Brock Stewart experienced some injury issues, but he’s lights out, with a 0.65 ERA and 12.69 nine-inning strikeout rate. Griffin Jax is a reliable setup guy (1.18 WHIP last year). Caleb Thielbar (0.95 WHIP, 1.76 walks per nine) will see his share of innings. And there may be room for Cody Funderburk, who came on board and in eleven appearances, registered a 0.75 ERA and 14.25 K’s per nine innings.
This is the most well-balanced team in the AL Central, and if they get real returns from Buxton, Correa, and Lewis, they are a contender to get to the World Series.
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