On September 13, 2025, Noche UFC saw bets going haywire with three out of the four main fights going to underdogs, one of which was the main event. Even the fans had never visualized such a scenario taking place. For the punters using the leading UFC betting sites, it was one of those horrible nights, which is a rare occurrence, with the outcomes being absolutely inaccurate.
Diego Lopes’s status was that of an underdog and was given 190 to 225 odds. He managed to get a TKO against Jean Silva after he managed to land a spinning back elbow in the second round. In the same way, Rafa Garcia managed to TKO Jared Gordon in the third round and was also the underdog. David Martinez also managed to win against the well-reputed Rob Font.
You’ll walk away from this with four things:
- What stats from Noche UFC illustrate how underdogs broke expectations.
- Comparisons to past cards so you see whether this was fluky or part of a trend.
- How to apply these insights in your UFC betting analysis going forward.
- What to watch in the next cards so you spot value early.
Let’s dig into what these results mean — for sharp bettors, casual punters, and anyone using sportsbooks either online or in person.
How the Numbers Tell the Story
One of the most noteworthy aspects: the underdogs captured victories not only in contentious bouts, but also in those finishes and dominant wins. Diego Lopes had odds anywhere between +190 to +225 depending on the platform, while Silva was the clear favorite, sitting between -230 to -280. Lopes won by TKO in the second round. Rafa Garcia significantly underdogged TKOed Jared Gordon in Round 3. Martinez beat Rob Font by unanimous decision.
Some of the fights listed have been mispriced by bookmakers and oddsmakers. Inaccurate pricing usually comes from blindly valuing a winning streak with careless branding of the team and the other associated hypersonic information. In the Lopes/Silva case, Silva’s winning streak and his reputation as a striker created a favour. But Lopes’s grappling and finishing ability from past high-level fights were ignored.
Lopes brought home two bonuses (Fight of the Night + Performance of the Night) during Noche UFC. That indicates his showing was exceptional and not merely fortunate. Odds makers don’t usually factor in “ability to deliver bonus-level performances,” so evenings like this illustrate the worth of fighters with the “bonus firework” history.
Why This Card Was Different
Noche UFC was akin to other recent UFC Fight Night cards in terms of how underdog wins occurred, but not with this much “upset finish” power on headline fights. Often, in main events, “favorites” win by the skin of their teeth; in this case, the main event “favorite” lost. That’s a shift in expectations.
Check the betting lines: some books had Jean Silva at −280, while on some platforms, Silva was closer to −230, which suggests some movement. Lopes as an underdog was always the case. Silva’s price was overly optimistic on platforms that shift odds rapidly based on incoming wagers; Lopes’s odds were much worse.
The few fighters’ cards that had misses also had weight misses. At Noche UFC, Gastelum was 5 pounds over the limit. That often shifts odds slightly. With betting, some prefer the name over the condition. Also, strong grapplers that can pace the fight (Garcia, Martinez) did well. Context matters: styles, fight history, weight misses.
To summarize: these upsets were not random. They followed patterns that some bettors ignore: finish rate, durability, past losses that reveal weakness, and the impact of mental/emotional pressure on the favorites.
How Bettors Can Apply This
If you bet UFC (online or in sportsbooks), what can you do differently?
Scout style matchups: Analyzing a fighter’s performance goes beyond simply counting victory strings. Lopes vs. Silva shows that a grappler with prior championship experience or finish bonuses can exploit a striking-heavy opponent.
Watch odds drift: The platforms that quoted Silva’s odds as high as -300 before settling, then drifting, show how odds can change. Those drifts can indicate public or sharp money. If a favorite’s odds are deteriorating, there may be information that isn’t readily available.
Take underdog props: Victory method, round props. These underdogs did not just win. They ended fights. Recife-style bets, early round finish props usually pay more.
Don’t ignore weight or recent losses: Gastelum’s weight miss likely hurt his matchup; Silva’s hype probably overshadowed flaws. That, when fighters are coming off difficult defeats, or there’s a weight issue, that’s usually a sign. Use it.
Also, manage risk: Underdog bets are highly speculative. Do not overexpose yourself. Spread yourself over different fights, or combine underdog bets with more conservative wagers in parlays strategically.
What It Means Going Forward
Considering the events from Noche UFC, it certainly seems there will be more adjustments from oddsmakers in the upcoming cards. Bookmakers will probably tighten lines on underdogs with strong finishing capability or significant upside. That increases the chances of early sharp action on bettors who follow the line movement.
Projected fights under which we could see the same underdog value: fighters like Martinez or Garcia, who just showed they can finish and are becoming more underrated. Also, fighters coming off slumps of poor performance might get underrated once again. Oddsmakers may overreact and make them favorites too quickly, which creates value on the other side.
Anticipate more aggressive adjustments to odds premiums for favorites by sportsbooks. Margins on favorites will grow in smaller amounts while underdogs’ odds will improve (i.e., better payout) when public sentiment is too one-sided on a particular issue. For bettors, the early bird gets the value.
Also, promotion trends: bonuses, performance incentives, fighting in front of regional crowds (like Lopes in Mexico/San Antonio) could tilt performance. These non-statistical factors may get more attention. That’s where UFC betting analysis can spot overlooked value.
Expert Insights
Monitor Fighter Momentum beyond Win/Loss
Analyze finishing sequences, performance bonuses, and the fight outcomes. A fighter who loses on points but takes the majority of the rounds is likely to be overlooked in the next fight.
Check Props Early
Rounds of finishing, methods of victory, and styles of the opponent often have more upside. Where underdogs are likely, props magnify expected return.
Watch Odds Open and Drift
Obviously, lines shift. If Lopes opened at +150 and then moved to +190 or worse, then he was bet on by sharp bettors. Get out of these prop bets before the casual betters dump on them and the values are gone.
Factor in Weight Issues and Venue Pressure
Weights or ‘hometown’ pressure can impair performance. A fighter who is a favourite and is either dealing with scales or hype tends to fold.
Avoid Bias toward Favorites based on Reputation
Being undefeated or famous does not equate to being correctly priced. Silva had an undefeated record in the UFC but lost because the other side’s calculus won.
Bankroll Accordingly
Riskiest fights are often with Underdogs. These bets have to be either very small or diversely distributed to manage exposure. Don’t chase losses or extremes or let a small insurance policy trigger an unexpected overage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What defines an “underdog” in UFC betting?
A: An underdog is a fighter whose odds imply lower probability of winning — usually a positive-money line (e.g., +150, +190). Favorite(s) have negative lines (e.g., −230). Underdog victories are profitable when they win against implied probability.
Q: How do sportsbooks set odds for UFC fights?
A: They use fighter records, recent performance, finishing rate, striking vs. grappling stats, injury or weight issues, public betting behavior, and sometimes venue or crowd factors. Odds also reflect the amount of money being placed on each side.
Q: What risk do bettors face when backing underdogs?
A: High variance: many underdogs lose. Payouts may be big, but losses often frequent. Also, odds can change close to fight time, making earlier bets riskier. Some platforms might change lines after weigh-ins or injuries. Emotional bias (rooting for fighter) can cloud judgement.
Q: When is the best time to place an underdog bet?
A: Often early — when odds are first released and sharp bettors place moves. Also after weigh-ins if favorite misses weight. Or when new info comes (cut struggles, injury, style matchup). Avoid last-minute hype unless you believe public money is misleading.
Q: Can one use underdog strategies in parlays or accumulators?
A: Yes — they offer higher potential payout, but risks multiply. If any leg fails, the parlay fails. Underdog legs may increase payout nicely but reduce probability of success. Mix with safer legs can balance.
Q: What statistics are most predictive of underdog upset chances?
A: Finish rate (both ways), takedown defense, strike differential, recent fight activity, durability, performance in close fights. Also how dominant losses were: was the fighter competitive or blown out? That context often matters.
Q: How to spot an underdog with value, not just hype?
A: Look beyond flashy promos. Check recent fights, training camps, injury reports, movement in odds, historical performance vs. similar opponents. If fighter has momentum or favorable style matchup, that underdog may have value.
Q: How UFC Betting Regulations Differ Around the World?
A: UFC betting regulations vary a lot depending on country. In the US many states require licensing, oversight, limits, age limits, and pre-fight odds disclosure. Elsewhere (UK, Australia) similar, but in some places betting on MMA has restrictions or higher taxes. In many countries betting online may be unregulated or semi-legal. Always use legal, licensed platforms.
Betting Takeaways and Next Steps
Three clear lessons emerge:
- Underdogs at Noche UFC didn’t just squeak by — they finished fights, defeated reputation, and turned odds upside-down.
- Strong value lay in fighters with grappling or finishing ability, especially when favorites were overhyped or carrying burdens like weight misses.
- Early bettors who latched onto Lopes, Garcia, Martinez got outsized returns — and future events will likely see sportsbooks tighten lines around fighters with similar profiles.
For anyone who uses leading UFC betting platforms, now is a moment to sharpen your edge. Watch upcoming cards, track odds movement, and don’t let favorites’ reputations blind you to statistical value.
Want real-time odds and underdog picks for the next big UFC card? Sign up with MyBookie today — check the lines early, bet smart, and turn up the heat when everyone else is overextending.
