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UFC on ESPN 9: Smith vs. Teixeira Predictions, Odds and Betting Analysis

UFC on ESPN 9: Smith vs Teixeira Odds And Picks

UFC betting sites favor Anthony Smith over Glover Teixeira in the main event of UFC on ESPN 9, expected to take place on May 13, 2020 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida, United States.

Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Anthony Smith -170
Glover Teixeira +140


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Betting Anthony Smith

Lionheart, pegged as the favorite by the best online sportsbooks, has won four of his last five fights. He lost a light heavyweight title match to Jon Jones by decision (unanimous) at UFC 235 on March 2, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. But then Smith submitted Alexander Gustafsson with a rear-naked choke at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith on June 1, 2019 at 2:38 of the fourth round in Stockholm, Sweden.

“It wasn’t my best performance, but it was one I was proud of, which was all I was looking for,” Smith said. “I didn’t even fucking care if I won or I lost. I just wanted to go in there and punch him — a lot. Was so fucking pissed off about the Jon Jones thing.  I was so angry at myself.  Was just mad at the world. Just needed to get that off my chest. I went in there with absolutely no expectations of winning. I know that sounds crazy, but I honestly didn’t care.”

He no doubt cared after the fact. He had to undergo two surgeries to repair a broken hand sustained during that fight. Come Wednesday, it will have been over 11 months since Lionheart competed last.

Betting Glover Teixeira

Betting sites have the Brazilian as the underdog. Glover has won his last three straight bouts. He arm-triangle choked Karl Roberson at UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw on 19 January 2019, at 3:21 of the first round in Brooklyn, New York, United States. Rear-naked choked Ion Cuțelaba at UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson on 27 April 2019, at 3:37 of the second round in Sunrise, Florida, United States. And beat Nikita Krylov by split decision at UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje on 14 September 2019 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. And speaking of submissions, Teixeira has never been made to tap out in 37 fights in a career spanning 18 years. But Smith is going to do his damnedest to change that.

“I do think with my pressure and just being pinpoint accurate, I think I need a late finish,” Smith said. “I think Glover’s going to be forced to take some bad shots to stay safe and I think it will be a submission. That one would mean a lot to me. Getting a submission win over someone as heralded as Glover Teixeira on the ground? He’s a really good black belt. But so am I. I think Glover’s going to be hard to knock out and I’m trying to be a little smarter with my hands these days. So we’re going heavier volume, we’re going to throttle the power back a little bit and be a little more tactical. I’m going to see if we can submit Glover Teixeira.”

Our Pick

I think Smith is approaching this all wrong and it could backfire on him. Teixeira has the momentum going in, while Lionheart is returning from an injury. Smith should go about it easily. Instead, he will attempt to submit a man who, for all we know, maybe unsubmittable. Also, there is that statement, “I’m trying to be a little smarter with my hands these days”. I don’t know, but to me, that sounds like he is going to hold back. And you can’t hold back in the octagon. All things considered, I would fade betting sites and take Glover to win by decision.