Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds
Colby Covington had the third loss of his pro career in November. This is the shortest layoff he has had in two years. He has a 16-3 record. Half of his wins have been stoppages (four knockouts, four submissions). His losses are one knockout, one submission and one decision.
Chaos is a grappler. He averages 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has improved his striking, notably his kicks, which are sneaky, accurate, and powerful. Interestingly, Covington came out in a southpaw stance in his rematch against Usman.
His high-level grappling, conditioning and pace may be Colby’s top weapons while his opponents crumble under the pressure as he mauls them. This arsenal is also what makes him a favorite at top offshore sportsbooks.
Pick: Colby Covington (-325) by decision.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev Odds
Rafael’s recent record is nothing to write home about. However, there is no denying that he has lost to the cream of the crop. Former interim champion and two-time challenger Colby Covington. Current champion Kamaru Usman. Upcoming challenger Leon Edwards. And Michael Chiesa.
The Brazilian fighter is well-rounded and intelligent. Standing up, the southpaw averages 3.49 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 3.22. In grappling, he averages 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Dos Anjos has good kicks, and in close quarters he has no problem letting his fists fly. Now and then, he will walk into the pocket without throwing a strike or hang out there after throwing one, which causes him to absorb damage.
Pick: Rafael dos Anjos (+210) by decision.
Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell Odds
Bryce Mitchell is a strong grappler. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He secured a career-best seven in his decision win over Andre Fili in 2020.
The left-handed, favored by the best online sportsbooks, has a great range awareness. He does a good job staying outside his opponents’ reach. His blows tend to be creative and his fundamentals are sound. There’s no doubt the road to victory lies in grappling when he mauls his opponents.
Pick: Bryce Mitchell (-150) by decision.
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira Odds
Holland had been on a roll in the early goings of his UFC career. He went 8-2 before his current slump. His record is 21-7 with one no contest. He has 17 stoppage wins. That includes 12 knockouts. Two of his losses have been submission finishes.
One issue that has come up as of late is his takedown defense. He has secured only 50% of his attempts against. He was brought down 18 times in his three-fight losing streak.
Holland, the favorite at top offshore sportsbooks, is a large welterweight. He stands six-foot-three with an 81-inch reach. Kevin employs that length well. He constantly throws straight and accurate punches with some good power in them.
Pick: Kevin Holland (-280) by knockout.
Serghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy Odds
Hardy has risen quickly through the UFC ranks. Maybe because the division lacks depth. Or as a result of his growing skills together with his athleticism. He currently holds a 7-4 record with one no contest. Six of his wins have been by knockout. Two of his losses have also been by KO.
Hardy is a former NFL Pro Bowl defensive end. He is big heavyweight. Greg maxes out the scale at 265 pounds. He stands six-foot-five with an 81-inch reach. His size doesn’t hinder his performance. He has good conditioning. His footwork and overall skills are getting better. He has big power.
Pick: Greg Hardy (+185) by knockout.