The UFC knows how to send off 2021 — with a bang! Out of the 15 fights, the UFC 269 betting odds, nearly half have round totals lined at just 1.5 rounds while four others have the under 2.5 rounds as favorites. This means we’re looking at a lot of finishes, many of them early. Let’s examine four fights–including a fierce underdog–using them in a parlay that can pay off at better than 20-1.
UFC 269: Bet the Unders And Don’t Blink
If you’re a fight fan and you want some violence, then UFC 269 features an embarrassment of riches. In fact, the card was designed to whet your appetite for the main event, which features a guaranteed bloodbath between Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirer. That also happens to be for the UFC Lightweight Championship and it leads our UFC betting picks here.
Leg #1: Oliveira and Poirier Ends In A Flash
Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier Odds by BetUs
| Team | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira | 1½ ( -180 ) | +142 |  |
| Poirier | 1½ ( +155 ) | -162 | |
|
|||
With a combined 49 finishes, Charles Oliveira (31-8-1) and Dustin Poirier (28-6-1) are two of the UFC’s most savage finishers. The champion, Oliveira, has the UFC record for most finishes (17), most submission victories (14) and the highest finishes-per-win percentage (93.7%). Whew.
In fact, nine of his last 12 victories all happened below the 1.5-round mark. Oliveira is as deadly as you can imagine. Only Tony Ferguson and Paul Felder have “survived” Oliveira since his return to the 155 lb. division and Ferguson suffered a broken arm.
Poirier is no slouch, either. He isn’t just the first man to KO Conor McGregor, he has won five of his last seven victories by a finish. He doesn’t always work as fast as Oliveira, but he gets opponents out of there.
However, the money should be on Oliveira (+135) as he is more durable and has more ways to win. For more value, parlay the under 1.5 rounds at a higher payout.
Pick: Under 1½ (+155)
Leg #2: Nunes Squashes Pena Fast
Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes Odds by BetUs
| Team | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pena | 1½ ( -105) | +625 | |
| Nunes | 1½ ( +110 ) | -950 | |
|
|||
The second leg of our parlay does not need as in-depth a breakdown as the main event: Amanda Nunes will destroy Julianna Pena and she will do it fast. The two-division champion has been so dominant, she’s pleading UFC President Dana White to bring in more women for her to fight. Seriously.
Nunes (21-4-0) has all but one of her 10 UFC finishes in the first round. Only Germaine de Randamie, Raquel Pennington and Valentina Shevchenko have survived Nunes in the 135 lb. division since she became champ. De Randamie is a former 145 lb. champion, Pennington had never been finished in the UFC and Shevchenko has never lost to anyone outside of Nunes.
As for Pena (10-4-0), she is being billed as an “expert grappler” but was submitted by the kickboxer de Randamie and Shevchenko. While this “Venezuelan Vixen” is tough as nails, she is prone to getting reckless and will get finished promptly. Add this under and don’t think twice.
Pick: Under 1½ (-105)
Leg #3: Vive le France!
Kai Kara France vs. Cody Garbrandt Odds by BetUs
| Team | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2½ ( +115 ) | +110 | |
| Garbrandt | 1½ ( +110 ) | -135 | |
|
|||
Moving down, we have a fantastic flyweight fight between former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt and Muay Thai specialist Kai Kara France. While Garbrandt (12-4-0) has the wrestling edge here, he has fallen in love with his hands and will stand and trade with a Kiwi who has posted 10 of his 22 victories by knockout.
Garbrandt has incredibly fast hands, but he’s at a four-inch reach disadvantage, has a suspect chin that will only get weaker with his weight cut and absorbs more significant strikes per minute (4.14) than he dishes (3.17). The writing is on the wall: he will get slept and at an underdog price, France (22-9-0, 1 NC) is a must-bet on the UFC betting lines.
Pick: Kai Kara France +110
Leg #4: Tuivasa Keeps It Short
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa Odds by BetUs
| Team | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sakai | 1½ ( -145 ) | -105 | |
| Tuivasa | 1½ ( +110 ) | -115 | |
|
|||
Last but not least, a heavyweight scrap between Tai Tuivasa and Augusto Sakai. Tuivasa (12-3-0) is coming off a three-fight winning streak, each ending in the first round. Five of his six UFC wins all came in the first five minutes. Sakai (15-3-1), meanwhile, is on a two-fight skid with his latest being a first-round KO against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Sakai is a cautious fighter who will be a bit more difficult for Tuivasa to put away. However, the big Australian has powerful leg kicks, which he will use to whittle down Sakai. Once those defenses fade, Tuivasa will put him away before the midway point of the second round.
Pick: Under 1½ (+110)
Parlay
Oliveira-Poirier Under 1½, Nunes-Pena Under 1½, Kai Kara France and Sakai-Tuivasa Under 1½ at +2095
