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UFC 268 Main Card Betting Odds, Preview and Expert Picks

UFC 268 Main Card Betting Odds, Usman vs. Covington 2
  • by Anthony Carpenter
  • November 4th, 2021
  • Category:

UFC 268, it has been anything but chaotic for chalk bettors when it comes to the UFC’s pay-per-views.

To put it bluntly: underdogs have been getting slaughtered in recent PPVs. In UFC 267 just last week, only one underdog won: Glover Teixeira submitted Jan Blachowicz to win the UFC light heavyweight title in the main event. All 12 other underdogs lost.

Combined with UFC 266, underdogs have won a measly two bouts in 24 tries — ouch! If you’re an underdog bettor, you’d be down around 18.5 units. But this is the UFC. Upsets are a dime-a-dozen, and underdogs come through in the biggest of ways.

Looking at the three main fights for UFC 268, we scope out three plus-money picks that might be lucrative this Saturday.

Which Underdogs Can Get You Paid This UFC 268?

Going by the UFC betting lines, two of the three main fights should end as the consensus predicts — but we’re not buying it and see this event ripe for some upsets.

Chandler Sneaks One Over Gaethje

Michael Chandler fell short in his lightweight title shot but came close to stopping Charles Oliveira. The former Bellator champion has been spectacular in his two fights in the UFC, and he’s set to make another memorable fight against the “Human Highlight” Justin Gaethje.

Fans expect a war here — a back-and-forth “Fight of the Night” type of affair. But we say nay! Chandler did not get this far in his career by simply slugging it out. The All-American wrestler will get Gaethje down at some point and choke him out, just like Khabib Nurmagomedov did.

Now, Gaethje backers may protest that he has a prolific wrestling background himself. But so did Chuck Liddell. Being a solid wrestler is one thing, but MMA wrestling is altogether another animal. And this is a weakness Chandler can exploit. We like his +165 UFC odds for a clear path to victory for the underdog.

Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler

FighterOdds
Gaethje-220
Chandler+165


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Pick: Michael Chandler +165

Namajunas and Zhang Go For Five

Their first bout lasted all of 78 seconds as “Thug” Rose Namajunas head kicked Zhang Weili to win the UFC strawweight title for the second time in her career. Don’t expect this rematch to end in a similar fashion. In fact, most rematches can look drastically different.

Namajunas also knocked out Joanna Jedrzejczyk in one round to win the strap for the first time. But in the rematch, she needed five rounds to earn a decision. On the other end, she lost the belt to Jessica Andrade by getting slammed. She would go on to win the rematch with a split decision.

The trend should continue here, as Zhang will be more cautious fighting Namajunas. The Chinese slugger hadn’t tasted defeat in eight years prior to that. Since then, she trained with Henry Cejudo and recalibrated her approach to the fight.

Expect a different Zhang entering this bout, while Namajunas will stay as calculated as she is. This one will be more of a chess match as the two top-level strikers outthink each other. And at +300 for a decision, we like Namajunas to squeeze by Zhang to defend her title.

Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili

FighterOdds
Namajunas+300
Weili-105


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Pick: R Namajunas To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision +300

The Era of Chaos Begins

As for the main event, four-time defending champion Kamaru Usman rematches Colby “Chaos” Covington for the welterweight title. Usman already broke Covington’s jaw in the first fight, but some scorecards had the challenger winning until that controversial stoppage.

Covington has insisted that was a bogus stoppage and has not relented from dubbing the champion as “Marty Fake-news-man”. Since that fight, he has switched camps and upped his defensive training. He looked even better as he beat up former champion Tyron Woodley more savagely than Usman did.
Usman, on the flip side, turned back two former lightweights in Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal.

Granted, Usman became the first UFC fighter to knock out Masvidal. His improved striking makes him an even more dangerous fighter, hence why his betting odds have shortened significantly from the first fight.

Even though Covington has only fought once since their fight, the master of chaos will push a pace that neither Burns nor Masvidal was able to bring. With his improved striking, and even hungrier mindset, Covington will once again push the champion to the limit.

While there is a chance Usman catches Covington at one point and finishes him, we like the challenger to get his revenge in what should be a close fight.
Bet him at +245 to win and throw the MMA world into chaos.

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington

FighterOdds
Usman-290
Covington+245


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Pick: Colby Covington +245