Super Bowl LVI is a retelling of the “David vs. Goliath” storyline, with NFL gambling sites underdog the Cincinnati Bengals aiming to conquer the powerhouse Los Angeles Rams. In the Rams’ own turf, no less, on February 13.
The Super Bowl odds at the best online sportsbooks opened with LA as a four-point NFL betting favorite. This has begun to increase to -4.5 at some NFL gambling sites, with most of the early money backing the Rams. Cinci, who has generated the larger ticket count, toppled two AFC giants on the road to the Super Bowl.
The spread opened as low as Rams -3.5, moved to -4, and now sits as high as -4.5. there’s not a lot of difference between those point spreads. But four points is the most common winning margin (4.85% since 2000) apart from the standard key numbers in football betting (3, 6, 7, 10, and 14).
We’ll take the lowest spread on L.A. we can find at NFL gambling sites. Respect is due the Bengals. They knocked off the top two seeds in the AFC on the road. Cincinnati’s Cinderella has gotten through by the skin of their teeth, though.
Super Bowl LVI Bengals vs. Rams Odds by MyBookie
| Team | SP/RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | +4½ ( -115 ) | 48½ ( -110 ) | +175 |  |
| Rams | -4½ ( -105 ) | 48½ ( -110 ) | -210 | |
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Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been outgained in all three playoff games. 1,012 yards to 1,113 yards. They have looked a far cry from a championship-level team for the entirety of a game. Especially in the last two showings.
Cincinnati has reaped the benefits from key takeaways at crucial times to help seal those wins, but retains some fatal flaws from the regular season that have been magnified in the playoffs. Protecting Joe Burrow is one of those weak spots.
Joe Burrow was sacked an league-high 51 times in the regular season. He has suffered a dozen sacks in the playoffs, nine against a Tennessee pass rush that had 43 sacks on the year. Last weekend, Burrow fell just once versus the Chiefs, but he was hurried on a number of occasions.
That forced him to get rid of the ball away or scramble for yards on the ground. His offensive line, which ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate, has a tough task of containing the Rams’ pass rush (No. 1 in pass rush win rate at 53%).
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles had 50 sacks in the regular season and has only five so far in three postseason contests. Nonetheless, that defensive front is still just as disruptive by hurrying opposing passers into bad passes and knocking down balls at the line.
That has stopped rival offenses from establishing a pace. And it has led to the Rams’s defensive success on third down in the postseason. Los Angeles has allowed postseason adversaries to convert on just under 19% of their third-down attempts in the past three games.
They sit No. 1 in EPA allowed per play on those crucial third-down snaps with -0.996. The Rams built those numbers against some stout third-down offenses. The 49ers, Bucs, and Cardinals all rank in the Top 10 in DVOA on third downs at Football Outsiders.
Super Bowl LVI Conclusion
The Bengals, No. 14 in third down DVOA, have found themselves in many third-and-long situations during their improbable Super Bowl run. They own a 48.78% conversion rate on third downs. That includes an 8-for-14 effort in the AFC championship game.
The Bengals have moved the chains on 41.13% of third-down attempts. With the Rams’ pressure forcing Cinci to burn plays on throwaways, sacks, and first down runs, those third-down situations will come up a lot in the Super Bowl. If the Rams can keep ushering their opponent off the field on those key snaps, the Bengals won’t be able to gain the momentum they need to counter this Los Angeles stop unit.
