Super Bowl 54 Betting: Myths About the Kansas City Chiefs
There is no game in the NFL betting season that attracts more “public” (unsophisticated) money than the Super Bowl. At the same time, there is no game that is scrutinized as much by true game analysts. So there are a lot of angles to look for.
There are also some misconceptions that can be hard to get over. And this all goes into the placement and movement of the point spread. The suspense ends (or perhaps, for some, begins) on Sunday at 6:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
Remember that at BetAnySports you can engage in a ton of props. You can also access Sports Betting Ultra, which enables real-time wagering during the game itself.
And here is their line on the game:
Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Odds
|49ers||+1 (-110)||54½ (-110)||EV|
|Chiefs||-1 (-110)||54½ (-110)||-120|
Let’s take a look at some of the things that might be providing the misconceptions. These are the “myths,” if you will,” as they apply to the Chiefs:
“The Chiefs can’t play defense”
Yes, it is true that the Chiefs have had their share of difficulty in slowing down opposition rushing attacks. But they have excelled in other areas of defense. For one thing, they had 45 sacks. They can get to the passer. And they have an outstanding secondary. In fact, they have been second-best in the NFL in limiting “explosive” pas plays over the last eight games.
They are also pretty good when it comes to matchups. Against the opposition’s #1 receiver, they have been fourth-best in the NFL. And against #2 receivers, they are second. Does San Francisco have enough depth in their receiver corps to make a real impact?
“The Chiefs are helpless against the run”
Yes, we mentioned above that Kansas City hasn’t always had a picnic against teams who run the ball. But that doesn’t mean they have been completely inept. As a matter of fact, there is only one running back who has gained more than 70 yards against them since Week 10. That was rookie Josh Jacobs of the Oakland Raiders. And they’ve allowed only three rushing touchdowns during that time. The real question is whether they can stand up to a relentless Niner ground attack.
“Patrick Mahomes will pick you apart if you don’t blitz him”
Well, we would certainly concede that the reigning MVP can carve up defenses under any circumstances. But it might surprise you to know that he is less lethal when NOT being blitzed. Against blitzes this season, Mahomes has completed 66% for seven TD’s without an interception. And he’s had a quarterback rating of 113.2. When not being blitzed, he has 64% completions and a passer rating of just 102.5.
And it is indeed interesting that the five games in which opponents blitzed him on less than 13% of his dropbacks, he’s had his five lowest QB ratings of the season.
San Francisco is not known as a team that relies on the blitz. Quite the contrary, in fact. They have the second-highest pressure rate in the league. And that goes with the third-highest sack rate. Yet their are only three teams that blitz less frequently than they do.
“The Chiefs will win if this is a shootout”
We’re not so sure that is absolutely true. The perception may be that because of the presence of Mahomes and all of his speedy receivers, this is a case where the Niners need to make this a low-scoring game in order to win. Surely Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins can be intimidating.
The truth is, San Francisco actually scored more points per game than did Kansas City (30.2 – 29.8). It is true that Mahomes is #1 in passer rating when throwing the ball 15 yards or more downfield (125.9). But Jimmy Garoppolo of the Niners has the NFL’s top completion percentage on those kinds of throws (58.5%).
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