Seahawks vs. Packers Divisional Round Betting Analysis and Odds

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Odds and Predictions

Lambeau Field can be a very intimidating place to play, especially when the stakes are high. No one is expecting an “Ice Bowl” repeat on Sunday afternoon, but weather conditions can often be a factor. And the Seattle Seahawks have demonstrated that they could go into such hostile territory and win.

Are they equal to the task of beating the Green Bay Packers? This is a game that brings together two of the NFL’s most experienced post-season quarterbacks. So a shootout might not be so unexpected as this game gets underway at 6:40 PM ET.

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Let’s take a look at the matchup:

Seattle Offense – Backfield, Line a Little Thin

Russell Wilson is obviously the “straw that stirs the drink.” He is one of the NFL’s best at throwing the ball down the field. And he is also pretty good at avoiding huge mistakes, throwing just five interceptions.

His targets have turned out to be first rate, at least on the flanks. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the rookie out of Ole Miss, are a dangerous duo.

The Seahawks, of course, have had a lot of injury problems in the backfield. And this led to the signing of Marshawn Lynch, one of the bigger heroes in franchise history. He teams with rookie Travis Homer, and that is pretty much what Seattle has.

And the ‘Hawks have to resolve some offensive line injuries as well. Duane Brown (left tackle) is questionable with his knee injury. George Fant, another tackle, is also questionable (groin). Guard Mike Iupati’s neck injury makes him doubtful.

Green Bay Defense – Pressure a Must

The Packers have allowed just 34 touchdowns from scrimmage. And they are among the top dozen teams in the league in terms of sack percentage.

Green Bay has experienced some difficulties in stopping the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Their “stuff rate” is second worst in the league. That means they hold the opponent to no gain or tackle them behind the line 13% of the time. Only Detroit had a lower percentage.

Will Seattle be able to take advantage of that?

Here are the numbers……

In the NFC playoff odds that are posted on this Divisional Round game, the Packers are laying points:

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Seahawks +4½ (-108 46 (-105)  +185
Packers -4½ (-112) 46 (-115) -222
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Seattle Defense – Not Clowney-ing Around

One of the keys for the Seahawks is getting some sustained pressure on Aaron Rodgers. And one of the people who is primarily responsible for getting that done is Jadeveon Clowney. He’s a beast when healthy, as he has the ability to make teams change their game plan.

Seattle is not seen as a team that does a stellar job of stopping the run, as they have allowed 4.8 yards a carry. That could open up play-action for Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay Offense  Rodgers Not the Same

This season the Packers’ offense went through a few changes with new coach Matt LaFleur. He didn’t try to make Rodgers a different quarterback. But he had him working more on timing and less on pure improvisation.

The numbers for Rodgers have not been those he has put up in the past. On tte positive side, he has a sizzling ratio of 26 TD passes to four inteceptions. But his quarterback rating is just 12th in the league. His seven yards per attempt put him in the middle of the pack. And he leads the NFL in the percentage of “bad throws” he’s had (yes, that’s a metric).

They’ll run it mostly with Aaron Jones, who has 1084 and has a nose for the end zone, with 16 TD runs.

In Conclusion……

A lot of people are surprised that Seattle ever got into the position where they were 11-5 in the regular season 7-8-1 against the spread). The numbers don’t all shine for them. But they know how to win, and they know how to win close.

Green Bay (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) beat Kansas City 31-24 on October 27. Since then they have scored better than 24 points only once (against the New York Giants). They’re not going to run and hide.

Pete Carroll has a world of playoff experience. Matt LaFleur has none, at least as a head coach. That counts for us. So does the fact that the Seahawks have gone 8-1 straight-up on the road. That includes wins at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia (twice) and San Francisco. We don’t doubt that they can get it done. And we’re on their side.

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