We ask this question with at least some degree of seriousness. Was it just a coincidence that Nick Foles came back, but the Jacksonville Jaguars played their worst game of the year? Maybe it was, but we can speak to it.
This week they face a Tennessee Titans squad that is looking for some payback. And they have a case to make, in that they’ve made a change at quarterback. How will this all play out?
It will be a clash of the Titans – and Jags – on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. BetAnySports customers can place wagers on this game while it is happening as they access Sports Betting Ultra.
Did Foles’ return materially change the Jags?
It appears that might be the case. Last Sunday he threw the ball 47 times and the Jags ran the ball only nine times. And the 33-13 loss to Indianapolis didn’t even get out of hand until the second half.
Going into last week’s action, Jacksonville had run the ball 41.9% of the time. But as it stands now, they have run it 29.9% in the last three games. Certainly we understand that Foles is a former Super Bowl MVP. And that they spent a lot of money to sign him. But their offense is designed to operate from a position of balance.
Payback time for Tennessee
The first time around, a wounded Titans offensive line provided a prescription to cure the ills of the Jags’ pass rush, which had been struggling. They sacked Marcus Mariota EIGHT times as Tennessee lost 20-7. Since then, Mariota has been removed, replaced by Ryan Tannehill, who has proven to be less sack-prone. He has also completed 71.4% of his passes, with a QB rating of 104.4. So it is safe to say the Titans have upgraded in this area.
Here are the numbers……
Let’s take a look at the pro football betting odds as they are posted at BetAnySports. They are fueled by reduced juice, which helps you avoid having to lay the standard -110 on football:
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans NFL Week 12 Odds
| Team | SP/RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +3½ (-117) | 41½ (-110) | +160 |  |
| Titans | -3½ (-103) | 41½ (-110) | -185 | |
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Who’s the better “catcher”?
Both of these teams are similar. The Jaguars and Titans both – in theory anyway – want to run first and establish that. Indeed, Tennessee runs the ball on 43.2% of its snaps. But maybe the most important thing in this game is which team is better at defending the run.
And in those terms, it may not appear to be much of a contest. While Tennessee allows just four yards a carry, Jacksonville yields 5.3. So yes, the Jags have indeed been soft. And last week they were exploited to the fullest.
As Jacoby Brissett of the Colts was very short on receivers, Indy went to the ground. And they rushed for 264 yards on 36 carries against the J-Ville front line. That averages 7.3 yards a carry.
And now here comes Derrick Henry, who had 188 yards against Kansas City a couple of weeks ago. Henry has 187 attempts. Leonard Fournette of Jacksonville has 182 carries. So in theory, this should be a duel. That is, if the Jags will commit to the run again.
In conclusion…….
Yes, it’s a bit of a different ballgame now. The Titans have at least addressed the difficulty they were having in keeping their quarterback upright. The over-emphasis on throwing the ball has been a little alarming for the Jags. And as we have mentioned, Tennessee’s defensive line is more “stout” than that of J-Ville.
This is a tough number, admittedly. But there was something about the presence of Gardner Minshew that added some energy tot he Jags’ situation. That’s not there now. So we’ll lean toward the Titans.
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