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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Wild Card Playoffs Picks & Analysis

New England Patriots versus Buffalo Bills latest odds

The best NFL gambling sites favored the Bills by a touchdown or more in all except one of their home games this year. That was a Week 13 Monday Night Football clash with the Patriots, when the wind caused the line to close with Buffalo as three-point chalk at the best online sportsbooks. Oddsmakers opened Buffalo as a 4.5-point home favorite this time around, but the line has dropped to as low as 3.5 points.

Following their second consecutive AFC East title, the Bills (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) welcome the Patriots (10-7, 10-7) in the opening round of the playoffs. The best NFL gambling sites favor the Bills, but New England has won nine of its past 10 trips to Orchard Park.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Playoffs Odds by MyBookie.ag

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Patriots+4 ( -110 )44 ( -110 )+175
Bills-4 ( -110 )44 ( -110 )-210
Bet Now on this Game

Betting New England Patriots

After they went on a seven-game winning streak and briefly took the lead in the AFC East, New England limped into the playoffs with a 1-3 SU and ATS record in their last four. Slow starts have been a problem for the Pats.

They faced first-half deficits of 13 points or more in each of those three losses. Including a 20-7 deficit when these teams last played in Foxborough. When you make your Patriots vs Bills pick,be sure to account for a dropoff in production from rookie QB Mac Jones. Favored by the best NFL gambling sites to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award a month ago, Jones experienced a slump. He threw six touchdowns and five picks in his final five games.

One can never count out Bill Belichick and his team as underdogs. Especially versus the Bills. If they can run the ball as well as they did in their two prior meetings with Buffalo this season, the Patriots should be able to pick up their 10th victory in their last 11 visits to Orchard Park.

Betting Buffalo Bills

Starting QB Josh Allen and the offense receive a lot of attention, but the key to beating the Patriots could come down to the Buffalo defense. That unit was dominant in Buffalo’s 27-10 win over the Jets last week.

They setting a franchise record by giving up just four first downs. They held New York to 53 net yards and recorded nine sacks. Buffalo finished the season ranked first in the league in total yards, passing yards and points allowed.

If the defense has a weak spot, it’s on the ground. New England rushed for 372 yards and four touchdowns in the two games this season. That includes 222 in its 14-10 road upset of the Bills in Week 13.

Stopping the run clearly is a must for the Bills. They are 3-4 SU this season when they allow 100 or more yards on the ground. But a fast start will also be important for Buffalo so as to settle in and keep the fans involved. The Bills are 8-0 SU when they score a touchdown on their first possession.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Wild Card Playoffs Pick

The last time these teams did battle in Foxboro back on December 26, the Bills earned a 33-21 win. Buffalo had 428 total yards with 28 first downs and no turnovers. As for the Pats, they recorded 288 total yards with two turnovers and went 1-of-10 on third-down tries.

This game likely won’t be a replica since the Patriots will come back stronger. However, Buffalo has scored 27 or more points in five consecutive games so they will have a good offensive performance here. Should be an entertaining rivalry matchup.