NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Raiders Seeking to Bounce Back From Defeat
You know, the Las Vegas Raiders would seem to have every excuse to go into a swoon. After all ,they’ve had to endure the bizarre resignation of their coach. And there was a horrible tragedy that wide receiver Henry Ruggs was responsible for. If you’re doing NFL betting, you have to take that kind of thing into account.
But was there any excuse to the 41-14 thrashing they took at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs last week? That’s something BetOnline customers have to seriously ask themselves, as they get ready to play host to the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that will begin at 4:05 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium.
NFL Betting Picks – Raiders in some chaos
Jon Gruden isn’t in the building, but the effects of his presence are probably going to reverberate for a while, since he is suing the NFL. Rich Bisaccia, the former special teams coordinator, is operating on an interim basis. And after a couple of enthusiastic efforts, things came crashing to the ground against the Chiefs. It was a game where Pat Mahomes, who’s been having his struggles, really got well, with 406 yards and five touchdown passes.
The game was actually tight until defensive end Maxx Crosby got called for a personal foul. It was a really stupid play on his part, and it opened the floodgates. Mentally, the Raiders just couldn’t recover after Mahomes led KC on a touchdown drive.
Cincinnati has had a bye week to prepare, and Joe Burrow hopes to keep the mistakes to a minimum. He’s got eleven interceptions, which is tied for the lead in the NFL coming into this week’s action.
In the NFL betting odds that have been posted on this game at BetOnline, the Bengals are the slight favorites
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 11 Odds
|Bengals||-1½ ( -110 )||50½ ( -110 )||-125|
|Raiders||+1½ ( -110 )||50½ ( -110 ))||+105|
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NFL Betting Picks – Some interesting things to take note of
As we spoke about penalties, the Raiders are 27th in the league in penalty yards. What we mean by that is they have been assessed the sixth most penalty yards in the league. Cincinnati, by contrast, is the “cleanest” team in the league, with fewer penalty yards than anyone else.
And as Burrow does not want to be hurried into mistakes, it’s worth acknowledging that according to the analytics folks at Pro Football Focus, Las Vegas has the highest pass rush grade in the league.
NFL Betting Picks – Can the Raiders go deep?
While Derek Carr did not really trust Ruggs as much as other receivers like Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, not having him makes a difference. And we’ll explain it. In the last two games, without the speedy wide receiver from Alabama, Carr has thrown for 1.6 yards per attempt less then he did WITH Ruggs. And he also has 2.3 intended air yards per attempt less. That’s a big gap in the numbers. It means something to be able to threaten a secondary.
The Raiders have attempted to fill the vacuum, signing DeSean Jackson, who was cut by the Rams. But Jackson, who has a history of silly errors, caught a pass on a big play and then fumbled, creating a turnover that led to another Kansas City score.
While the Bengals have a very potent runner in Joe Mixon (8th league-wide in rushing), who helps create a dangerous balance, Las Vegas would love to be able to get more consistent contributions out of Josh Jacobs, who has been in and out of the lineup.
NFL Betting Picks – How Cincy will attack the Raider defense
Despite the interceptions, Burrow has actually been a pretty accurate passer. In fact, his “bad throw percentage” is the lowest among all quarterbacks who’ll be starting on Sunday. And he gets it down the field, with Rookie of the Year candidats Ja’marr Chase. The LSU product, who played with Burrow there, averages 19 yards per catch.
The Raiders are very heavy with Cover 3 defense, in which they drop back in coverage and try to prevent explosive plays. That leaves areas of the field open, and statistically, Burrow, well, buries Cover 3 defenses, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. He should have quite a bit of success finding people like Mixon in the flat and tight end CJ Uzomah. The Raiders have allowed the second-most yards to the tight end position this season.
NFL Betting Picks – Our conclusion
Maybe it’s a swoon for the Raiders, and maybe it isn’t. But the Bengals have a solid field leader. And they have, for the most part, done more than adequate job on defense (sixth in yards per drive allowed). And the Raiders haven’t exactly built a fortress at home. So we are content in going with the visitor.
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