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NFL Upset Pick of the Week: Cowboys Over Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs Defense Betting Analysis
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • November 16th, 2021
  • Category:

The last two weeks in the NFL betting have packed plenty of upsets. We’ve seen heavyweights like Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Arizona take big fat “L”’s. But there were also smatterings of smaller upsets. For Week 11, we take a look at an upset that painfully looks too obvious: the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Kansas City Chiefs.
Las Vegas’ NFL odds have the Chiefs as a slight favorite while Dallas will be an underdog for the fourth time this season. Can “America’s Team” keep their money train rolling or will the Chiefs spoil the fun?

Upset of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

No hyperbole, Dallas has been the best team to bet on the NFL this season. ‘Dem Cowboys have been cash cows, covering all but one of their spreads while winning two of their games as an underdog. They’ll look for their third upset going against the Chiefs, who have continued to struggle and have weaknesses the Cowboys can exploit.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds by BetUs

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Cowboys+2½ ( -105 )56 ( -110 )+120
Chiefs-2½ ( -115 )56 ( -110 )-140
Bet Now on this Game

Chiefs: Why They Are The Favorites

They are the Chiefs and are still living off their past seasons’ reputation. Kansas City has been far from infallible this year, but even with their slow-starting defense and increasingly predictable offense, the team has managed to go 6-4 against a tough schedule.
The NFL odds are priced conservatively for them because the public still backs them heavily, and because their defense has turned the corner. The Chiefs have allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games. If this trend continues, the Chiefs should continue cashing as chalk.

Why They Could Lose

Even before their struggles this season, there was faint writing on the wall for Kansas City’s problems. For starters, this team went 8-11 against the spread in 2020 and had one double-digit win between Week 8 last season and Week 4 of this season — playing the miserable Jets and fledgling Eagles, respectively.
Four of the Chiefs’ last five losses came at the hands of the NFL’s best offenses (when they’re clicking) and the fifth was with them getting shut down by the once-troubled Titans defense. There are plenty of problems to fix for Kansas City. But with Patrick Mahomes and the offense not as dynamic as they used to be, it’s open season on the once-dominant franchise.

Cowboys : Why They Are The Underdogs

The foul stench of the big egg Dallas laid against the Broncos is still in the air. Never mind that Dallas bounced back emphatically with a 43-3 thrashing of the Falcons, Dallas’s no-show against Denver shows that if this team gets off on the wrong foot, it’s toast.
Mike McCarthy’s crew leads the NFL in scoring but it is also turnover-prone. Further, its defense is largely dependent on forcing turnovers. In the two games Dallas was unable to force a turnover, they barely got by Minnesota and got flattened by Denver. A team that can be this exciting needs its playmakers to continue producing or face a crisis.

Why They Could Win

The Cowboys are this season’s top offense and one of the best at winning the turnover battle. Dallas has not only averaged nearly two forced turnovers per game, but it has also ranked in the top three in limiting opponents’ time on the field.
Dak Prescott leads the league in passer rating (110.8) and is also completing 70.3% of his throws. Dallas has scored 35 or more points five times this season — with two of these coming against the Panthers and Patriots, two of the top-five best units in the NFL.

How It Happens

After ten weeks, the five teams that have scored the most points in the NFL are the Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Buccaneers, and Titans. Notice anything? Four of the Chiefs’ last five losses were against four of these teams. If a team is great at putting up points, the Chiefs will likely struggle against them.

Moreover, the Chiefs committed at least two turnovers in their last five losses. This team has given up the ball the second-most times of any team this season. It just so happens that Dallas is both really good on offense and really good at forcing turnovers. This sounds like a recipe for another upset, and worthy of a straight-up wager on the NFL betting lines.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +120