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NFL Over of the Week: Buccaneers at Jets Week 17 Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • December 31st, 2021
  • Category:

It’s a lot more fun betting ‘over’ in NFL totals, but that’s generally been a losing activity this season. In 240 games, the totals have gone over only 45.2% of the time (108-131-1), 42.5% excluding overtimes.

At least one game this Week 17 has to go over, right? Based on the NFL betting odds, a lopsided meeting between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets is our top contender. The Bucs enter Sunday’s game at the Meadowlands as around a two-touchdown favorite, despite their growing list of injuries. The Jets are coming off a win over Jacksonville and appear to have a somewhat-better offensive rhythm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets NFL Odds by BetUs

Buccaneers-13 ( -110 )45½ ( -110 )-750
Jets+13 ( -110 )45½ ( -110 )+525
Bet Now on this Game

The last ten games couldn’t be any more different for these teams, going by their over/under results. Seventy percent of the Bucs’ games have gone under, while seven of the last 10 Jets’ have gone over. That said, there are two main factors why this one will go the Jets’ way, which we’ll cover momentarily.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8 O/U Record)

Why They’ll Push This Game Over: Even if the Buccaneers’ games have tended to end under, one doesn’t simply sleep on the best road offense in the NFL in the last few weeks. Tampa Bay put up 30 or more points in their last three road games-and in nine of their 11 wins — hence the the Buccaneers are generally large favorites on the NFL betting lines.
On the other end is the defense, which appears a shell of itself, allowing at least 25 points in seven games this season. With players like Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaquille Barrett and several players in the secondary on the shelf, Tampa’s defense may just be a bit more generous.

Why They’ll Make This Game Go Under

The Buccaneers’ are one of the truly stacked teams in the league, meaning they’re better than the sum of their parts. Missing a handful of key defensive players won’t deter them.

Tampa have held three of their last four opponents-all with losing records-to 17 or fewer points. Two of Tampa Bay’s last three AFC East opponents suffered the same fate, Miami and New England. The Jets are worse than either of these teams. Additionally, five of eight games featuring Tampa as a road favorite have gone under.

New York Jets (9-6 O/U Record)

Why They’ll Push This Game Over: The Jets’ defense stinks. Congratulations to the team for holding it down against Jacksonville, but the 21 points surrendered to that trainwreck franchise is only the third time New York allowed that few. The Jets have given up 30-plus points in eight of last ten games including 45 each against Buffalo and Indianapolis and an unholy 54 against New England.
New York gives up nearly 35 points against winning teams. Offensively, the Jets have been better. The points are still low, the team averaging 19.2 points with just four total turnovers in the last six weeks. The scoring will eventually come, hence the totals continue to go over.

Why They’ll Make This Game Go Under: Maybe the scoring won’t come. These are the Jets, after all. New York have the league’s fifth-worst red zone touchdown percentage (53.2%) and the third-worst at home (46.4%). This team has also hit the 20-point mark against a winning opponent four times in nine attempts, averaging just 19 points if we exclude their unexplainable 34-point barrage against Cincinnati.

The Jets have also held passing attacks to a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last six games, paltry but a vast improvement over the 3:1 ratio in their first nine games. The passer rating of opponent quarterbacks have dropped to 98.6 (from 108.1), despite the ‘other guys’ completing over 70% of their passes.

This Game Is Going…

OVER! Bet it on the NFL betting odds. The Jets have an improving offense and the Buccaneers’ wounded defense may just spot them 20 points or so. Conversely, the Jets’ still-terrible defense gets lit by Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense.
Expect Tampa Bay to easily score 28 or more points here, meaning all the Jets have to do is score 17 points or so. That’s not impossible, even if it means a touchdown in garbage time when the Bucs are comfy and cozy.

Pick: Over 45½ (-110)