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NFL Football Week 12 Odds: Saints on the Climb with Hill

Betting Analysis on Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints keep rolling along. Now they have won seven games in a row, and they are quite likely going to be the NFC South champions according to the best NFL betting websites. And we say that knowing they are without their starting quarterback.

On Sunday they venture to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos in a game that begins at 4:05 PM ET.

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What are the Saints vs. Broncos Betting Numbers?

In the NFL football odds that have been posted on this game, the Saints are the favorites:

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Saints-14½ (-110)36½ (-110)-1100
Broncos+14½ (-110)36½ (-110)+711
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The QB transition – has it started?

Right now, with Drew Brees out with eleven fractured ribs, the focus is on Taysom Hill. The BYU product is a player that NFL teams couldn’t figure out what to do with. Largely known as a running quarterback in college, his arm wasn’t trusted and he was let go by Green Bay.

But the Saints figured out what to do with him. Originally he was someone for them to use in special packages. And he played other positions like a receiver and also performed on special teams. But head coach Sean Payton thought he might have a future at the QB spot. And so Hill was being developed as a “project.” And the project continued to gain steam as time progressed.

And the speculation was that with Brees coming close to the end of the road, Hill might be in a position to take the reins as the starter. Remember though, the same had been said about Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston. But there is something different with Hill. And Payton was confident enough to give him an extended “audition” with Brees hurt.

It all got started last week against Atlanta. Hill completed 18 of 23 with 233 yards against the Falcons. And he also chipped in on the ground, as expected, with 51 yards and two touchdowns. The New Orleans defense kept Matt Ryan handcuffed in the 24-9 victory.

Believe us when we tell you – Payton is “all in” with Hill. And he is putting his best foot forward here. He would like to be able to stick the “heir apparent” label on him if at all possible.

Can the Broncos keep Hill off-balance?

In several different categories, the Broncos have a top-ten defense. That includes yards per drive, where they sit ninth. Where they have been especially good is in the red zone, where they have surrendered a touchdown only 50% of the time.

If you watched last week’s game between the Broncos and Miami Dolphins, you could see that head coach Vic Fangio and his staff were able to make Tua Tagovailoa pretty uncomfortable. They’ll try to do something similar to an inexperienced quarterback.

Conclusion

The thing about Hill is that he is such a good all-around runner that he brings something extra to the table in red zone situations. And when you think about it, the guy who may be compromised by inexperience is Drew Lock. The Denver QB is still in the learning curve, and more likely to fall victim to a pass rush.

The Saints have been genuine road warriors, winning 17 of their last 20. They’ve been resilient, and they inspire confidence. Hill impresses us as a guy who can get things done. And he’s got the top receiver and top all-around back (Alvin Kamara) in this matchup. So we can lay the points.

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