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NFL Draft Odds at No. 1 Overall Pick

NFL Draft First Pick by Team Betting Odds
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • February 17th, 2023
  • Category:

It is officially the offseason, time to focus on the 2023 NFL Draft, Apr. 27th-29th at Union Station in Kansas City. So, which players have the best odds to be taken #1 overall?

Every year when this overhyped spectacle rolls around, there’s a clear and unanimous No. 1 overall selection. That’s not the case this time. Who will be taken first in the draft, or which team makes that selection, is not certain.

Holding the first overall pick in any draft probably means the team isn’t good, thus no margin to blow this choice. Make the right decision, or suffer afterwards.

Here are the current odds surrounding the first overall choice in the 2023 NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Quarterback-Driven League

It’s no secret the best player in the entire NFL is a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs put the entire team on his back and won his second ring. A postseason such as that clearly reinforced the importance of having a top-tier quarterback on the roster.

By the way, Kansas City is the early 6-1 (+600) favorite to successfully defend its title, as per BetUS sportsbook Super Bowl odds.

So, a quarterback is going to be taken first in the 2023 NFL Draft, but which one?

Da Bears

What a weird time it was in the Windy City, as the Chicago Bears, who had what seemed to be a roster that bordered on functional, were worse than just about any team in the league.

Justin Fields showed signs that he could be a franchise quarterback of the future. Coaches finally took the training wheels off him, and it was fun.

While the offense produced plenty of fireworks at Soldier Field, the defense cratered. Trading both Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn left Chicago in a world of hurt on that side of the ball. Many holes to fill, with and defense needing the attention.

Trade/No Trade?

While nothing’s a gimme, the Chicago Bears seem poised to trade the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. The Houston Texans had the franchise quarterback of their choosing on a silver platter, but after winning their last game, find themselves in real danger of being jumped.

The Bears can trade back into the draft and still grab their guy. With no trades, Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. would likely be that guy. The edge rusher is the premier non-quarterback in the draft. However, it’s very likely the Bears trade down and land a player who makes an impact. a la Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Jalen Carter (Georgia). They will also acquire some more picks, potentially to help on defense or in the wide-receiver room.

Anderson Jr. is who the team wants, but the #1 overall pick is an asset that may be dangled. As of now, Alabama’s Bryce Young is odds-on, priced at -120, according to NFL Draft odds.

NFL Draft Remainder of Top Choices

Just below Young is another quarterback, CJ Stroud of Ohio St. He’s at +250. There were rumors that Stroud may stick around Columbus due to the potential revenue though NIL, but he opted to move to the next level.

If no quarterback goes at No. 1, it will either be Jalen Carter (+450) or Will Anderson (+650).

Quarterback Will Levis out of Kentucky has the fourth-best odds to be taken first. He is listed at +500. Levis may go anywhere in the top 10, perhaps falling. With such a bumper crop of quarterbacks, someone like Anthony Richardson (Florida) may be one of those “reaches” that a team invariably makes.

Numbers don’t lie. Expect a quarterback to be taken off the board before any other position. Young is favored, but there are many dark horses who have a license to “win”.