During this coronavirus crisis, talk about the NFL Draft betting has occupied a lot of time. And speculation about the quarterbacks has been especially hot. Is it a foregone conclusion that Joe Burrow is the top pick? And who might go first – Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa?
The folks at BetAnySports have naturally posted odds on all this. So we’re going to take a look at two of the draft’s top two names in this piece.
Joe Burrow Drafted Odds
| Drafted #1 Overall | Not Drafted #1 Overall |
|---|---|
| -8500 | +3200 |
I’m sure I am in the minority, but I don’t think this is such an “automatic” selection on the part of the Bengals. And if I were them I would entertain trading down with the Dolphins. And they may be able to get a “quarterback of the future” even with that pick. Remember, the staff knows Justin Herbert from working with him in the Senior Bowl. But I am NOT the Bengals, so they will likely go ahead with Burrow.
Zac Taylor would like to execute an offense based on play action, and they think Burrow can do that for them. There is a certain amount of risk attached to this. What if Burrow, who did not shine in his junior year, turns out to be a “system” quarterback? Yes, we hear that term often, but the fact of the matter is that he didn’t explode until he was put with Joe Brady. Outside that scheme, how will he do? Can he run fast enough to avoid defenders? And how well will he be able to get the ball down the field? I don’t see something overly strong in that regard. But I’m not a scout.
Brady was hired as offensive coordinator by the Carolina Panthers. They signed Teddy Bridgewater as a free agent. And the rationale was that he had been worked under Brady for a year with the Saints. But I wonder whether they considered a trade with the Bengals, because it would have been really interesting to see what could happen with Brady and Burrow collaborating on the NFL level.
It would be hard to believe anyone would trade up with Cincinnati for the purposes of NOT drafting Burrow. So we’re not necessarily seeing a lot of value here.
Tua Tagovailoa Drafted Odds
| Not Drafted #4 Overall | Drafted #4 Overall |
|---|---|
| -1750 | +1000 |
Here’s where things might get a little interesting. The first three teams slated to draft are the Bengals, Redskins and Lions. Well, Detroit’s pick might be up for grabs, which would certainly upset what happens after it. But the Giants are at #4. And for the first time ever, general manager Dave Gettleman may actually trade a first-round pick. Obviously, having chosen Daniel Jones last year, they aren’t looking for a quarterback. But they would surely be willing to make a deal with a team that is. That’s because they would likely get a better yield than otherwise. Ideally they would like to stay in the top ten, and then add a couple more picks, wherever that might be.
Logic dictates that any team making a deal to get to #4 would be reaching out for a QB. So they would be favoring Herbert or Tua, in all likelihood. And if the Lions traded THEIR pick, it would impact what the next team does. To be hot on Tua, a prospective team would have to be willing to excuse his injury history. That includes recently uncovered details about previous wrist injuries. Then he scored lower than any other quarterback on the Wonderlic test (13, to be exact). And that fueled speculation that he was dropping. That may indeed be the case. But there still might be some value at this price.
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