Hubert Davis’ team overcame early struggles to close strong. Looking at some of the earlier results of the North Carolina Tar Heels, one wouldn’t expect them here. After all, they lost to Tennessee by 17 points. Miami buried them by 28. Kentucky destroyed them by 29. Wake Forest clipped them by 22. And so on.
Of their nine defeats, eight of them have come by at least nine points. But here they are, winners of 11 of 12 and one step away from bringing Hubert Davis a title in his first season at the helm. They’ll battle the Kansas Jayhawks in a brawl for it all. BetOnline customers can see the finals at the Superdome in New Orleans at 9:20 PM ET Monday on TBS.
And the Tar Heels will be an underdog in the NCAA Championship betting odds:
And North Carolina will be an underdog in the NCAA Championship Betting Odds
| Team | SP/RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | +4 ( -110 ) | 151½ ( -110 ) | +165 |  |
| Kansas | -4 ( -110 ) | 151½ ( -110 ) | -190 | |
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Of course, it should also be mentioned that they are priced at +165 on the money line. Kansas is laying a -190 price.
So why can North Carolina emerge with a championship and cut down the nets?
(1) They will not give you a second shot very often
North Carolina is the second-best team in the nation in the category of defensive rebounding percentage. Opponents have pulled down missed shots only 21.6% of the time.
Their big man, Armando Bacot, is an absolute animal He has grabbed eight rebounds on the offensive end in each of the last three games. And on top of that, he ranks eighth in the country in individual defensive rebounding percentage.
What this means is that his opposite number on the Kansas team, David McCormack, had better make his shots. And on an overall basis, he has made just 51.4% of his two-point shots, which is not imposing.
(2) North Carolina can defend without fouling
North Carolina’s opponents have scored only 13.8% of their points at the free-throw line. That is the 22nd lowest percentage out of 358 Division I teams. So the Jayhawks, by and large, will have to earn it in other ways.
(3) The Kansas defense can’t concentrate on any single player
With the Tar Heels, BetOnline patrons never know where the huge game is going to come from. For example, Brady Manek, the Oklahoma transfer, exploded for 28 and 26 points in the first two games of this tournament. RJ Davis had 30 against Baylor. Caleb Love had 30 vs. UCLA and then 28 in the semifinal against Duke. Bacot had 20 points and 21 rebounds against St. Peter’s. He has 75 rebounds in his last four games.
Even the guy who is considered the non-scorer, Leaky Black, contributes big stuff. In his last nine games, he’s had 38 assists and just eleven turnovers. He had six offensive rebounds on Saturday night against Duke. And aside from that, he’s a staunch defender. Just call him the “glue guy.”
(4) They don’t beat themselves a lot from the free-throw line
North Carolina shoots 76.3% at the line. And since they don’t attribute much to the bench, that virtually guarantees they are not going to leave a lot on the table.
Love is an 86% free throw shooter. Davis is just below 83%. Black is 87%. These are the guys Kansas would least like to foul.
(5) They can win the “size” matchup against David McCormack
McCormack has benefited from a size advantage against those guarding him. That was especially the case against Villanova and Miami, which couldn’t front him effectively. That allowed the 6-10, 250-pounder to make 16 of 19 field goals in those two games.
Interestingly, McCormack only has seven offensive caroms in his last five games. So there’s an opening.
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