March Madness Sportsbooks Trends: Seed vs. Seed Record

NCAA tourney sportsbooks trends: Seed vs. Seed record
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • March 16th, 2017
  • Category:

Here are some top sportsbooks trends, especially as it pertains seed matchups, that NCAA basketball tournament fans might want to keep in mind.

No. 1 vs. No. 16

No. 1 seeded teams are 128-0 straight-up overall, and 6-10 against the spread in the opening round of the previous four NCAA Division I Men’s basketball tournaments. If we go farther back to 1985, the top seeds are 14-5 ATS in the first round when the line is 19.5 points or lower, including 7-1 in the past 10 years. No. 1 seeds who know who their opponents are ahead of time are favoured by more than 19.5 points.

No. 2 vs. No. 15

No. 15 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds four times since 2012. The second and fifth seeds have split the ATS 18-18 since 2008, but the No. 15 seeds that get at least 18 points – such as Troy, Northern Kentucky, and Jacksonville this year – are on a 7-1 ATS winning streak in that same period of time.

No. 3 vs. No. 14

At least one 14-seed has upset a No. 3 straight-up in each of the past four tourneys. No. 14 seeds that get at least 12 points are 6-2 against the spread in the opening round in the last three years. This applies to Iona, Kent State, Florida Gulf Coast, and New Mexico State.

No. 4 vs. No. 13

No. 4 seeds are 11-1 straight-up against No. 13 seeds in the last three seasons. Favourites in this seed matchup went 54-41-1 against the top sportsbooks spread between 1990 and 2013. However, they have gone just 5-7 ATS ever since. Moreover, No. 4 seeds that were less than a 7.5-point favorite have gone 2-5-1 against the spread with three SU losses since 2012. All four No. 4 seeds this year are at least 7.5-point favourites.

No. 5 vs. No. 12

A No. 12 seed has beat a No. 5 seed SU in 18 of the last 21 seasons. No. 5 seeds favoured by top sportsbooks have gone 11-21 against the spread in the opening round since 2009.

No. 6 vs. No. 11

No. 11 seeds are 19-13 against the spread versus No. 6 seeds since 2009. Additionally, the last five occasions that a No. 11 seed was favoured over a No. 6 seed, it has gone 4-1 against the spread. Each of the No. 6 seeds who knew in advance who their opponents were this year are favoured, even though the line could potentially change in the Creighton vs. Rhode Island game.

No. 7 vs. No. 10

No. 7 seeds favored by gambling sites have gone 10-6 straight-up and 7-4 against the spread in the opening round since 2013. Wichita State is the only favoured No. 10 seed this year.

No. 8 vs. No. 9

Underdogs in this matchup have gone 20-9-3 against the spread since 2009, and covered the top sportsbooks spread in 10 consecutive games when the line is within three points. Miami-Michigan State, Arkansas-Seton Hall, and Vanderbilt-Northwestern fit that class this year.