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Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Week 1 Predictions, Odds & Picks

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL best bets
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • September 12th, 2021
  • Category:

NFL gambling sites favor the Packers over the Saints on September 12, 2021, 4:25 PM ET at TIAA Bank Field.

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Odds by BetOnline.ag

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Packers-4½ ( -110 )50 ( -110 )-210
Saints+4½ ( -110 )50 ( -110 )+175
Bet Now on this Game

Betting Green Bay Packers

The Packers are road dogs at the best online sportsbooks. The Packers’ offense was tops last season with an 80.0% red-zone percentage; The Saints’ defense had a 68.0% opponent red-zone rate. Green Bay ranked second in the league in third-down percentage (49.4%).

They will face the ninth-ranked defense in that category (38.2%). The Packers allowed 21 sacks; the Saints’ defense recorded 44 (eighth-most). Green Bay’s offense scored 0.51 points per play, compared to the 0.34 per play New Orleans’ defense gave up.

Aaron Rodgers had 4,299 yards last season (268.7 yards per game). He completed 70.7% of his passes (372-of-526), with 48 touchdowns and five picks. Aaron Jones took 201 carries for 1,104 rushing yards.

He scored nine touchdowns. He also had 47 catches for 355 yards (22.2 receiving yards per game) and two aerial touchdowns. A.J. Dillon tallied 242 rushing yards on 46 carries (15.1 yards per game), with two ground touchdowns.

Davante Adams caught 115 passes on 148 targets for 1,374 yards (85.9 yards per game). He scored 18 TDs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling added 690 yards on 33 catches and six TDs. On 63 targets, he put up 43.1 receiving yards per game.

Robert Tonyan nabbed 52 passes on 59 targets for 586 yards and 11 TDs. He averaged 36.6 yards per game. Za’Darius Smith registered 12.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL and 69 tackles. De’Vondre Campbell posted 129 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks. Darnell Savage Jr. intercepted four passes and had 94 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and 12 passes defended.

Packers Betting Trends

According to NFL gambling sites’ trends, the total has gone OVER in four of Green Bay’s last five games. Green Bay is 7-1 SU in their last eight games. Green Bay is 2-5
ATS in their last seven games against New Orleans.

Green Bay is 13-7 SU in their last 20 games against New Orleans. Green Bay is 4-1 SU in their last five games on the road. The total has gone OVER in five of Green Bay’s last five games when playing on the road against New Orleans.

Green Bay is 7-1 SU in their last eight games against an opponent in the National Football Conference. The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay’s last 18 games against an opponent in the NFC South division. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.

Betting New Orleans Saints

The Holy Ones are (nominally) home dogs at NFL gambling sites. The Saints’ offense ranked seventh-ranked in the NFL in turnovers allowed last season. They will be playing the 25th-ranked team in turnovers forced.

New Orleans averaged 246.6 passing yards per game; Green Bay was eighth, surrendering237.1 passing yards. The Saints averaged 0.46 points per play (sixth in the NFL). New Orleans had the fifth-ranked offense with 30.1 points per game; Green Bay’s defense was 13th, allowing 23.1 ppg.

Taysom Hill had 928 passing yards (58.0 yards per game) last season. He went 88-for-121 (72.7% completion percentage) with four touchdowns and two picks. He ran for 457 rushing yards on 87 carries with eight TDs, averaging 28.6 yards per game. Unfortunately for the Saints, head coach Sean Payton is going to start the interception-happy Jameis Winston.

Alvin Kamara ran for 932 rushing yards (58.3 yards per game). He scored 16 touchdowns. He had 83 catches for 756 yards (47.3 receiving yards per game) with five receiving TDs.

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Pick

Common wisdom used to be ‘never bet against Drew Brees’; now it’s ‘never bet on Jameis Winston’.