Miami Dolphins Underdogs against the Patriots in NFL Betting Week 4

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • September 29th, 2018
  • Category:

According to the best sport betting sites, the Miami Dolphins are 6.5 underdogs. But Miami has something for which even the best online sportsbooks don’t account. As Alexander Pope wrote in his poem An Essay on Man, “hope springs eternal.” And the Dolphins hope that, if the Lions could beat the New England Patriots, so can they. In fact, they are hoping against hope. Especially considering Miami has not won at Foxboro since 2009. According to USA Today, the Pats’ “sluggish 1-2 start has something of a different feel [than previous years] after the franchise’s first consecutive double-digit losses since 2002.” You have to give it to the Patriots. Even when they suck they do it in new and more creative ways each time. Like Hitchcock, they are masters at crafting suspense.

Betting Miami

The Dolphins are 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread. But to paraphrase Diamond Dallas Page, who have they beat? The Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, and the Oakland Raiders. Neither the bottom of the barrel nor the cream of the crop. Unless they defeat the Pats – even these aimless Pats – they haven’t beaten anyone. Then and only then should the best sport betting sites have faith in Miami.

The Dolphins secondary has seven picks and has held opposing teams to 17.3 points per game. On the other hand, they have lost nine straight at Gillette Stadium by an average margin of 18.4 points. Moreover, they are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a dog of seven points or more.

Betting New England

The Pats are ranking 29th in third-down conversion (28.6%) and 24th in first downs (53 total). The passing game is barely there and the ground attack is nonexistent. Conversely, they are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at Gillette Stadium, winning by an average of 14.3 points. And they are the New England freakin Patriots, for freak’s sake!

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

  • Date: September 30
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium

Lines from Intertops.eu:

  • MIAMI DOLPHINS     +6½ (-110) 48 (-110) +230
  • NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6½ (-110) 48 (-110) -280

Miami Team Stats


  • Points per game: 25.0 (11th)
  • Total yards per game: 324.0 (23rd)
  • Passing yards per game: 225.3 (19th)
  • Rushing yards per game: 98.7 (17th)


  • Points allowed per game: 17.3 (6th)
  • Total yards allowed per game: 377.3 (20th)
  • Passing yards allowed per game: 288.3 (29th)
  • Rushing yards allowed per game: 89.0 (8th)

New England Team Stats


  • Points per game: 19.0 (25th)
  • Total yards per game: 300.0 (25th)
  • Passing yards per game: 202.3 (26th)
  • Rushing yards per game: 97.7 (20th)


  • Points allowed per game: 25.7 (19th)
  • Total yards allowed per game: 406.3 (28th)
  • Passing yards allowed per game: 263.0 (22nd)
  • Rushing yards allowed per game: 143.3 (31st)

Betting Trends

  • Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • The Dolphins are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
  • New England is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games

The Dolphins are playing some decent football. They are undefeated ATS and SU. Many gamblers are probably thinking the best sport betting sites are giving them free points on this one. And could you blame them for thinking so? Yes. Yes you could. The Pats are a mess, but aren’t they always a mess early in the season? It’s like they do it purposefully to lure the other teams into a false sense of security. And every year everyone falls for it. Not me, though.