The New England Patriots are three-point road dogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, according to top betting sites for the 2019 NFL Conference Championship game. But it’s not just the best online sportsbooks where the gambling action is taking place. These are some rather unusual prop bets, though. A lot is riding on this game, and it all comes down to Tom ‘The Goat’ Brady and Pat ‘The Arm-adillo’ Mahomes. Or “the legend vs. the phenom” as former Cowboys QB Tony Romo dubbed it.
The last time they went at it, the Pats handed the Chiefs their first loss of the 2018 regular season. However, it wasn’t a walk in the park. “Kansas City’s had a helluva year,” Brady said. “They gave us everything we could handle in October. I’m sure it will be the same. They’re well coached with a good offense and their defense played well against the Colts. It’s going to be fun to play them in the championship game.”
Betting New England
Let’s have a look at some trends as seen on the top betting sites. The Pats are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. And 8-4 SU in AFC championship games. As well as 5-3 SU as underdogs in the postseason under Bill Belichick. New England is also 7-3 SU in its last 10 versus Kansas City.
The naysayers will be quick to point out to the Pat’s terrible on-the-road performance this season. As they are always quick to point out to New England’s seeming flaws or shortcomings. They are also quick to forget these is Tom freakin Brady and Bill freakin Belichick we’re talking about here. A restaurant would be the only venture at which those two could fail. Because they would only serve crow.
Betting Kansas City
The Chiefs’ defense was one of the worse defenses in the regular season, if not the worst. However, let us not overlook the fact the KC has allowed just 17.4 points per game this season. Including the playoffs.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs – NFL Conference Game Betting
- Date: January 20, 2019
- Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Lines from MyBookie.ag:
- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3 (-106) 55½ (-115) +148
- KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 (-113) 55½ (-105) -170
Betting Trends
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
- Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
- Patriots are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
- Chiefs are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points
- Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Our Game Prediction: I was convinced the Pats would beat the Chargers straight-up but would not cover the point spread. I was only half right, but I should have been fully right. I gave the Bolts too much credit and had too little faith in the Patriots. Especially since the game was in Foxboro, where Tom Brady was lord and master for the 2018-19 season. Having said that, Kansas City was not, like New England, unbeatable at home. The Chiefs lost to none other than the Bolts 28-29 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 15. KC was a 3.5-point home favorite in that one, per top betting sites. All things considered, feel free to fade the Pats, but do so at your own risk. I know I won’t.
