CFP National Championship Pick: Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Odds & Analysis
It’s nearly upon us. This Monday evening in Indianapolis, SEC rivals Alabama and Georgia square off in the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship game. It’s a rematch of December’s conference title game, where the Crimson Tide easily disposed of the previously-unbeaten Bulldogs, 41-24.
In order to get here, Alabama escorted out the party-crashing Cincinnati Bearcats, 27-6, in the Cotton Bowl, while Georgia dismantled the Michigan Wolverines, 34-11, in the Orange Bowl. Thowe non-surprising results led to the highly-anticipated encore between the two teams who were unquestionably college football’s best during the regular season.
CFP National Championship Odds by BetUs
|Georgia||-3 ( -105 )||52 ( -110 )||-147|
|Alabama||+3 ( -115 )||52 ( -110 )||+130|
The current college football odds have Georgia as three-point favorites over Alabama and have the point total sitting at 52. Of course, both of those figures are subject to change with quite a few days remaining until kickoff. It is interesting to note that Alabama were 6½-point underdogs in the SEC Championship against this same Georgia team, crushed the Bulldogs and are underdogs once again.
Georgia Won’t Have Any Answers For Bryce Young
It was a big blow for the Crimson Tide to lose star wide receiver John Metchie III to a torn ACL against Georgia, but that didn’t seem to bother Alabama in the second half of that game or in the Cotton Bowl against Cincy. Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young — who torched Georgia for 421 yards and three touchdowns through the air last month — can do just fine with lead pass-catcher Jameson Williams leading a host of other talented, but less-proven, options like Ja’Corey Brooks and Slade Bolden.
The Bulldogs were first in all of FBS in points allowed (9.6 points per game), but gave up those 41 to Alabama. The Tide more than doubled Georgia’s average per-game passing yards allowed, doing so without one of their top receivers for a good portion of the game.
There’s a reason Young won the Heisman and while Georia’s Kirby Smart has to have a better game plan this time. It hasn’t been possible to shut him down completely. The Bulldogs can hope to contain him, but even that might be a stretch. Look for Young to have his way with Georgia’s defense again.
Bennett Isn’t So Reliable
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett IV had a big game in the Orange Bowl, throwing for 313 yards and three touchdowns against what had been a really strong Michigan Wolverines’ defense. However, he isn’t nearly the weapon Young is, as evidenced by a pair of crucial interceptions in the conference foray last month Bennett IV’s season-long numbers are pretty good, yet his play doesn’t inspire the kind of blind confidence that Young does.
He also hasn’t looked particularly good against Saban’s defenses throughout his career. Last regular season, Georgia also lost to Alabama by that same 41-24 score, with Bennett IV throwing three picks. That’s two nearly carbon[copy losses in two seasons against one of college football’s best coaches, one who always takes pride in his defenses.
That’s not a great confidence builder for the Bulldogs
A lot of Bennett IV’s impressive stats in 2021 were compiled against inferior opponents, with the exception of the Orange Bowl and early-season wins (Auburn and Kentucky). Alabama is a completely different animal, and Bennett won’t be able to get away with throws he did against non-elites. Georgia needs to rely on its running-back duo of Zamir White and James Cook, however if the ‘Dogs have to come from behind, leaning on Bennett IV might not succeed.
Take Alabama Straight-Up And The Over
So, no college has been more successful over the past 15 years than Alabama, and Saban has run the Tuscaloosa juggernaut the entire time. The Crimson Tide hang their hat on their ability to handle the biggest of games (think national semifinals and title games), and you can’t argue with Alabama’s success in CFP games or the Tide’s six NCAA titles since 2009.
Alabama beat Georgia soundly a month ago, and should win once again this time around, so consider the Tide’s moneyline (at a really good value) if you’re making college football picks. Also, think about siding with the over. In Alabama’s five CFP national championship game appearances, the over is 5-0 (compared to the under being 6-1 in Alabama’s CFP semifinal games… go figure). The trend is really hard to ignore, and the 52-point total isn’t even that high.
Pick: Alabama +130
Total: Over 52
Parlay: Alabama +130 and Over 52 at +320