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Bills vs. Patriots Betting Analysis, BetUS Odds and Predictions

New England Patriots versus Buffalo Bills latest odds
  • by Andrew Scofield
  • November 30th, 2022
  • Category:

The 8-3 Buffalo Bills head to Gillette Stadium Thursday night to take on the 6-5 New England Patriots. Both are playing consecutive Thursdays, after both spent Thanksgiving on the road. The Bills and Patriots, in their first meeting of the season, are at opposite ends of the AFC East standings. Buffalo’s tied atop the division, but the Pats are sitting in last place. Buffalo is a four-point favorite (total at 43½), according to BetUS sportsbook NFL odds.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Odds by BetUs

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Bills-3½ ( -110 )43½ ( -110 )-195
Patriots+3½ ( -110 )43½ ( -110 )+165
Bet Now on this Game

Bills After Division Lead

Buffalo will be looking to move the needle to what would be a third win in a row, despite struggling more in the last month-and-a-half than any time during the season. Having suffered two of their three losses in the last four weeks, it’s not a coincidence that Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has been playing through an injured elbow.

Buffalo is coming off of a victory at Detroit, rallying to defeat the Lions, 28-25, the difference a 45-yard Tyler Bass field goal in the final seconds. Buffalo hasn’t resembled the same dominant team of late, having surrendered an average of just over 25 points in their last five games (season average 18.1 points allowed/game). Currently tied with the Miami Dolphins in the division penthouse, Buffalo now finds itself second (right behind the Kansas City Chiefs) in wagering to win the title. It’s no longer listed as favorite, listed at +450, as per Super Bowl odds.

Provided the Bills are healthy, they are arguably the best team in the NFL. Buffalo has skilled players in every area of the field. The team has the third-highest passing yards per game, eighth-highest rush yards/game, second-highest in points per game (28.1), and have allowed the fifth least points/game (18.1). Buffalo may also have the best secondary in the league.

Patriots’ Wrong Division

A last-place team above .500 means the New England Patriots may need a change of venue. That’s not happening, so the Pats, just two games off the AFC East lead, have to try vaulting over three teams in Miami, the New York Jets and Buffalo. If New England wins this game to go just a game back of the Bills, that will be a sign of improvement with Bill Belichick’s team. That’s a feat easier said than done, especially considering New England’s recent history with Buffalo.

New England was Thanksgiving losers at the Minnesota Vikings, 33-26. The loss snapped a winning streak at three games, despite quarterback Mac Jones ending with 382 yards (two touchdowns) through the air. A failed ground did the Pats no favors..

This is Jones’ moment to cement himself as the current and future fixture in Foxboro (Tom Brady, anyone?), and a win against the Bills would thrust Pats back into the postseason hunt.

Bills Have Patriots’ Number

The Buffalo Bills are the choice to continue winning. While the Patriots have been a lot better in their last few, recent history against the Bills does not work. Buffalo has too many weapons on offense, and the Bills win this by a touchdown, Lay the four.

With the total at 43½, go under here. As was mentioned, Buffalo hasn’t been nearly as explosive of late, keeping its games close. In this AFC East slugfest, expect the Bills’ defense to prevail.