Betting on the AFC South Championship: Colts vs. Titans NFL Week 12 Odds
In the first meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans this NFL betting season, the showdown that was expected never materialized. Indianapolis won easily, 34-17, and moved into a first-place tie in the division, though the Colts held the tiebreaker with the win.
When Titans coach Mike Vrabel was asked what his team needed to do better in this week-end’s rematch, he said play better defense, force turnovers on defense, run the ball of of-fense, don’t turn the ball over, and play better on special teams.
Is that all?
Apart from doing “everything” better in the rematch, the Titans must play a full four quarters. In the first game, Tennessee actually led at halftime. But Ryan Tannehill threw for just 48 yards in the second half, and the Titans scored zero points.
Colts vs. Titans NFL Week 12 Odds by BetUs
|Titans||+3 Ev||51½ (-110)||+155|
|Colts||-3 (-120)||51½ (-110)||-175|
As good as Derrick Henry is, and right now he’s in position to defend his 2019 NFL rushing title, the Titans offense needs Tannehill to be on. It was Tannehill’s play that opened up the offense last season and made it possible for them to get to the AFC Championship Game.
From last year to this year, his completion percentage is down, as are his yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR. In Sunday’s win at Baltimore, we did see glimpses of 2019 Tannehill, which was a welcome sight after two straight weeks of fairly poor play.
But as those betting online on the over know, the real problem in Tennessee is defense. The Titans have the 25th-ranked defense in the NFL, giving them a 7-2-1 record when betting the over. The over/under this week is 511⁄2.
With the acquisition of Philip Rivers, the Colts were one of the darlings of the preseason prognosticators. A great defense, a new quarterback, and a top offensive line had expecta-tions high. But a bad loss to Jacksonville and a defensive letdown at Cleveland took the bloom off the rose.
It’s strange to think of a first-place team that just knocked off the Green Bay Packers as flying under the radar, but that is what is happening in Indianapolis. Those bad early losses are a distant memory, and the Colts are now playing like everyone expected.
Rivers has put up back-to-back big performances, and the running game has averaged 136 yards per game in both wins.
The NFL odds have the Colts as 31⁄2-point home favorites. They are 6-4 against the spread this year and 4-1 ATS at home.
Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor got back on track against Green Bay, Rivers has just one turnover in his last two games, and the defense just shut down Aaron Jones, holding him to his second-lowest total of the season.
The Titans are coming off a big win, but the Ravens look like a team that is lost. When Tennessee faced the top defenses of Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Indianapolis earlier this season, the Titans failed to break 300 total yards.
In the dome in Indianapolis, look for similar offensive struggles. The Titans offense won’t be able to cover for their porous defense, and the Colts win this game by six points or more.
Take the Colts to cover the spread and become the clear favorite in the AFC South.