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The AFC title game is Sunday evening, featuring the same teams at the same venue as a year ago. The Cincinnati Bengals (regular season 12-4) travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (regular season 14-3), with the winner punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.

These two juggernauts certainly have their storylines ahead of Sunday night’s game. Cincinnati is a one-point favorite (total of 47), according to NFL odds.

Currently, the Bengals are priced at 5-2 (+250) to win the title, while the Chiefs are +265. That’s per Super Bowl sportsbook odds.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds by BetUs

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Bengals -1½ (-110) 46½ (-110) -125
Chiefs +1½ (-110) 46½ (-110) +105
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Burrow is the Headliner

The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty bad at the beginning of the 2022 season. beginning 0-2, including a terrible overtime loss against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

It’s not about how you start, but rather how you finish here. Cincy ended the season on a 12-2 run, having ended on an eight-game run, The two postseason wins (versus Baltimore and Buffalo) extended that streak to 10. It was dominant in a 27-10 thrashing of the Bills in snowy Orchard Park this past Sunday.

Burrow went 23-of-36 (242 yards, two touchdowns), completing passes to six different receivers along the way.

Then, there’s the success quarterback Joe Burrow and his team have had against Kansas City. Cincinnati had won the last three meetings against Patrick Mahomes-this season’s presumptive MVP winner-and the Chiefs. In last season’s AFC title game, Cincinnat was down, 21-3, before forcing the game into overtime and emerging with a 27-24 victory.

Remember, the Bengals are a fantastic team when it comes to covering the spread. Cimcinmati was 12-3-1 against the spread (ATS) during the season, 1-1 in the playoffs.

Chiefs as Home Underdogs?

The Kansas City Chiefs are (tepid) underdogs in a home playoff game, and there’s one reason behind it.

The high-(right) ankle sprain suffered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. That malady has led to some serious fluctuations with the line, KC was the choice at the outset, then the money poured in on the Bengals. Cincy was a 2½-point favorite before the number (as of Wednesday afternoon) went down to one.

Mahomes will play, but his improvisational skills may be severely compromised. An injured Mahomes is better than nearly every quarterback in the league, but…

Kansas City is 39-9 at home with Mahomes. He finished A 22-of-30 (195 yards, two touchdowns) as the Chiefs held off the Jags. It wasn’t the usual top-ranked offense of the league, but between Mahomes and understudy Chad Henne (5-of-7, 23 yards, one touchdown), who did lead a long drive to the end zone, they were able to whip a pesky foe,

Travis Kelce is making his case to become the greatest tight end in history. Mix that with Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, meaning their are lots of weapons.

KC failed to cover the 10-point spread against the Jaguars last week, and the Chiefs were abysmal (5-12-1) against the spread all season long. If you went with the moneyline, total at they’re 15-3.

History Won’t Repeat Itself

The history books might favor the Cincinnati Bengals to win this game against the Kansas City Chiefs. They won’t cooperate. KC will win this game outright at a moneyline of +105, and thus as the underdog (-105).

All signs point to Mahomes winning the MVP a second time. While the Bengals have all sorts of momentum, they were (possibly) one poor quarterback sneak/leap shy of being sent home…at home.

Kansas City has won its last six games (including postseason) since its loss to the Bengals. Its maligned defense should challenge Burrow and his offensive line. Take the Kansas City Chiefs to flip the script of last season.

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