Top betting sites favor the Alabama Crimson Tide by 37 points against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Both programs are coming off a win in their season openers. That’s par for the course for the Tide. Not so much for A-State, which starts 1-0 for the first time in four seasons. Their chances of starting 2-0? Slim and none, according to the best online sportsbooks. Nevertheless, the Red Wolves are apparently seeking for a “signature victory.” Miraculous. Serendipitous. A product of witchcraft. Those are all words I would use to describe an Arkansas State upset of Alabama. But not “signature.” However, improbable as it is, it’s not impossible.
Betting Arkansas State
The Red Wolves beat Southeast Missouri State 48-21 on Saturday. However, they failed to cover the 31.5-point spread. A-State outgained the Redhawks 685 yards to 285. QB Justice Hansen passed for 423 of those yards, as well as six TDs and one pick. The Red Wolves also gained 188 yards on the ground. That’s a feat that seems unlikely against ‘Bama’s secondary. A-State went 6-6 against the spread last season. However, they are 10-5-1 ATS as a dog of 30 points or more, dating back to 1995. On the other hand, they have covered the last four times they’ve played under those circumstances. Though the last time was in 2012.
The Red Wolves have a lot to work on before heading to Alabama. A-State surpassed SEMU in all aspects of the game. Including penalties, 12 to 6. That cost Arkansas State more than 120 yards. If the Redhawks scored 14 points off of those 12 penalties, just imagine what the Tide could do. Moreover, Hansen threw the most TD passes by a Sun Belt player since 2011. But head coach Blake Anderson said Hansen and his backup should have thrown more than seven TD passes.
Betting Alabama
In stark contrast, starting Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa only threw two TD passes. Notwithstanding which the Tide seemed unable to not score, even if they had wanted to, which of course they didn’t. UA defeated Louisville 51-14, and covered the 23.5-point spread. Alabama has won their last 19 straight home games. And have gone 9-10 ATS in that stretch. Additionally, ‘Bama is 4-6 ATS when top betting sites favor them by 30 points or more. They are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites of 30 or more points.
Head coach Nick Saban has announced that Tagovailoa will start again versus A-State. That’s bad news for the Red Wolves. And for Jalen Hurts as well. “I think everybody knows that Tua’s going to start this game and we’re going to use Jalen’s skill set in the future to help however we feel he can benefit the team,” Saban said. “Just to be clear on something: I love all of our players on our team. As parents out there you can relate to this: You love all your children, and sometimes your children do things a little better than others.” And parents sometimes use euphemisms, too. Ouch, that Hurts!
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Information
- Date: September 8
- Time: 2:30 pm CT
- Venue: Bryant–Denny StadiumTuscaloosa, AL
Lines from InterTops.eu:
- ARKANSAS STATE +36½ (-110) 65½ (-110) +11500
- ALABAMA -36½ (-110) 65½ (-110) -34500
Betting Trends
- Arkansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- Arkansas State is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
- Arkansas State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Alabama is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
- Alabama is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Our Prediction: Other than Alabama winning and covering, users of top betting sites should keep an eye on the total. The total has gone under in 12 of UA’s last 18 games. And the Tide has gone over 65.5 points just twice in the last 20. ‘Bama has gone under in eight of the last 10 against Sun Belt teams. And A-State has gone under in five of the last six against SEC schools.
