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AFC Championship: Sweep by Chiefs Would Mean Trip to Super Bowl

NFL Betting: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Odds

The Buffalo Bills have been a team on fire, one Hail Mary away from twelve straight victories. Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs have only lost twice all season long. And on top of that, they beat Buffalo. However, they seem to have been doing just enough to get by lately. Will that be good enough to earn their ticket to the Super Bowl?

That would be the question on the minds of BetOnline customers as the Chiefs and Bills meet up for the AFC title at 6:40 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday night.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chief Championship Odds

TeamSP/RLTOTALML
Bills+3 (-116)54½ (-116)+140
Chiefs-3 (-104)54½ (-104)-160
Bet Now on this Game

Mahomes is cleared to play

Of course, if you look at the line, you know that Patrick Mahomes is now slated to play in this game. Otherwise, Buffalo would have been favored. Mahomes took a blow to the head in last Sunday’s 22-17 win over Cleveland, and had to be taken out and put into concussion protocol.

Well he has passed through all the protocols, and has he go-ahead. There is kind of a nagging toe injury to worry about, however, and that’s the kind of thing that will affect him more in this game.

It should be noted that in terms of the regular season and postseason combined, Mahomes has the highest passer rating in history.

These teams played before….

In that previous meeting, Kansas City came out with a 26 – 17 victory. And though it would seem uncharacteristic, they really dominated things on the ground. Kansas City had 245 rushing yards, with 161 of them produced by Clyde Edwards -Helaire. They chewed up 38 minutes of the clock, and exposed a Buffalo weakness.

In that game it should also be mentioned that Kansas City’s explosive wide receivers were mostly held in check. Tyreek Hill caught three passes for 20 yards, for example. On the other side, Josh Allen was held to 122 passing yards. And he had only 102 of those yards going to wide receivers.

It was a wet, soggy field that day, but we may be seeing some of the same conditions this Sunday. We’ll expand at the bottom.

Buffalo’s defense has been improving

Over the first ten games of the season, the Bills allowed 26.5 points per game. Over their last eight games, they yielded only 17.1 points per contest. So obviously, they’ve made some adjustments and some improvements. And whichever way you slice it, they did a tremendous job last weekend against Baltimore, holding the Ravens to just three points.

How both teams are trending

Currently, Buffalo, with its 15 – 3 record, has won eleven of its last 12 games, losing only to Arizona, when Kyler Murray completed a Hail Mary pass at the end (which came to be known as a ‘Hail Murray’). They have covered nine of their last 10 games.

The Chiefs won by a margin of 15.6 points per game in their first seven victories. But in their last eight wins, they have only been by a total of 32 points. And they have covered just one of their last nine. After exceeding 30 points and seven of their first 10 games, they have done so in only two of their last seven.

Conclusion…

Both of these teams have a hard time stopping the ground games of opponents. So you might expect them to try that route a little bit. Or maybe more than a little bit, in the case of Kansas City, since they were able to penetrate Buffalo’s defensive line with much success the first time.

Interesting enough, Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest yards to wide receivers in the NFL. And meanwhile, Buffalo does not have a star tight end. In fact, tight ends accounted only for 40 receptions. So it could be that this is not the ideal match up for their offense.

Consider that it is expected to be rainy and cold in Kansas City on Sunday, and in the second half, winds could be up to 15 miles an hour. So you don’t have ideal conditions. And since Andy Reid became a head coach, the Chiefs have played 59.4% are their home games under the total. That seems a pretty good way to go in this one.

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