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New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) vs. Liberty Flames (12-0)

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames December 1, 2023: The Aggies and Flames face off in the regular season finale, with both independents looking to make a statement heading into bowl season. The red-hot Aggies have won eight straight, while liberty remains undefeated. This matchup of NCAAF top betting websites picks features two talented quarterbacks and high-powered offenses.

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames December 1, 2023 Game Info

When: Friday, December 1, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET
Where: Williams Stadium
TV: CBSSN
Stream: Sofascore

Diego Pavia QB vs. Kaidon Salter QB

Pavia has taken his game to another level during New Mexico State’s winning streak. The sophomore leads the country in passer rating (150.1) and has been prolific both through the air and on the ground. His accuracy and decision-making have improved markedly. Pavia excels at keeping plays alive with his legs and can pick apart defenses when given time. His lack of experience could be a factor against Liberty’s complex schemes, however.

Salter has accounted for 40 total touchdowns for the undefeated Flames. The transfer from Alabama has the arm talent to threaten defenses at all levels of the field. Salter ranks fifth nationally by averaging 10.1 yards per pass attempt. He has tremendous weapons around him and thrives on high-risk, high-reward plays. Salter’s gunslinger mentality can lead to turnovers at times though when forcing throws.

Explosive Aggies Offense Led by Star Thomas and Jonathan Brady

New Mexico State’s offense has lit up the scoreboard during its winning streak, topping 50 points three times. The catalyst is Star Thomas, who averages nearly 6 yards per carry. His tough between-the-tackle running sets up play-action shots downfield to top target Jonathan Brady. Brady is a home run threat every time he touches the ball, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. If Pavia gets adequate protection, this offense is nearly impossible to slow down. The Aggies offensive line continues to improve but lacks size against elite defenses.

Big-Play Flames Spearheaded by Cooley and Daniels

Salter has two bonafide studs at running back and receiver. Quinton Cooley averages 6.2 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns, keeping defenses honest. But the biggest beneficiary of Salter’s aggressive throws is CJ Daniels. The speedster averages nearly 21 yards per catch with 9 touchdowns. Daniels demands extra attention underneath, opening up opportunities for RB T.J. Green on screens and wheel routes. Liberty’s wealth of weapons makes them difficult to scheme against, although increased pass pressure could disrupt Salter’s rhythm.

NCAAF Betting Odds: Liberty Flames -385, Over/Under: 55.5

Liberty is a double-digit favorite to preserve its perfect season, with oddsmakers setting the total at 55.5 points in the expected shootout. Backing the Over is appealing given both offenses’ potency. And while laying almost two touchdowns is risky, the Flames defense could create a comfortable margin if able to force turnovers. Betting Liberty -10.5 and Over 55.5 has nice value.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends

New Mexico State are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Mexico State’s last 7 games.

New Mexico State are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.

New Mexico State are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Liberty.

Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Liberty Flames Betting Trends

Liberty are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty’s last 6 games.

Liberty are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.

Liberty are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Betting Picks

Riding the hot hand with New Mexico State catching over 10 points looks enticing. The Aggies’ balanced offense can keep pace in a shootout as well. But Liberty’s playmaking defense thrives on disruption, which could prove the difference if able to force Pavia into rare mistakes. Laying nearly two touchdowns is admittedly a bit high for a rivalry game between closely matched opponents. Those willing to pay a premium for an unbeaten team should place bets at trusted legal betting sites for the best lines and flexibility.

 

Receiving Yards Prop: Liberty 38, New Mexico State 31.

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