Indiana lost every scholarship player with eligibility when Darian DeVries arrived. Texas A&M changed coaches and reshaped its roster almost entirely via the transfer portal. That’s the kind of shakeup that shifts power in college hoops and gives serious angles for those who bet on college basketball online.
You’ll get inside what these massive rebuilds tell us: where value hides, how stats back up the hype (or don’t), what to watch in early betting, and where projections land for the season. We’ll break it down with primary insights, some comparisons, practical tips for wagers, and then forward-looking projections.
Focus is on two squads: Indiana under DeVries, and Texas A&M under new coach Bucky McMillan. We’ll use recent transfer numbers, shooting splits, experience, and more. By the end, you’ll see which matchups or line movements might offer value, how to spot risk, and understand just how big the portal era’s impact is when building a bet-worthy team.
Rebuilding Numbers and Key Stats
The changes implemented in Indiana are quite radical. DeVries started with absolutely no returning scholarship players other than freshmen. He then added incoming transfers like Tucker DeVries (West Virginia), Reed Bailey (Davidson), Wilkerson (Sam Houston), J. Miles (North Florida), Tayton Conerway (Troy), J. ‘Deuce’ Drake (Drexel), N. Dorn (Elon), S. Alexis (Florida/Chattanooga), and many others.
Key stats:
- Lamar Wilkerson averaged 20.5 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.1 APG, and shot 44.5% from 3 at Sam Houston.
- Reed Bailey averaged 18.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.8 APG; 41.5% from 3 at Davidson.
- Tucker DeVries brought a strong wing scoring and solid perimeter shooting history.
Texas A&M approached the same problem from a different angle. They managed to acquire Bucky McMillan from Samford, a winner of four consecutive 20-win seasons. McMillan sprung on a roster that lost Wade Taylor IV, Zhuric Phelps, etc., and began to move rapidly to construct a team through the portal.
Key A&M additions include guard Pop Isaacs, who shot/ball handled and averaged 15.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 3.2 RPG at Texas Tech before sustaining injuries and missing part of last season. Another impressive addition was Mackenzie Mgbako from Indiana, who is anticipated to enhance the team’s inner core.
Time shall aid both teams in coming together as cohesive units. Right now, Indiana’s newly constructed perimeter line filled with fresh faces suggests they may have promising beginnings in 3-point-heavy contests. However, at this stage, the defensive balance, turnover control, and rebounding will surely be problematic. In McMillan’s faster A&M Texas team, for example, the lines may well misinterpret the defense and transition weaknesses in the over/under.
Indiana vs. Texas A&M
Indiana’s strategy: almost entirely new roster from the portal, along with a couple of freshmen. Major positives: experience (most of the transfers played at a high level), deep shooting from 3, especially Wilkerson and Bailey. Negatives: lack of continuity, communication on defense, and interior presence. They lose Malik Reneau – his 13.3 PPG & 5.5 RPG average is gone. And also, Mackenzie Mgbako is lost due to a transfer.
Texas A&M: new coach McMillan, new set of expectations. The SEC is challenging; the competition is better. A&M has to plug holes not just in scoring, but more in defense. Pop Isaacs gives them a guard who can handle pressure and create shots. But the frontcourt depth and the defensive boards will be strained.
Analyzing national phenomena: all programs nowadays operate in what you might call ‘roster churn’ mode. In the case of Indiana, the incoming group includes players who shot 40% or more from 3 and players who have had All-Conference status. Those are the kind of things that will be captured in the NCAA basketball power ranking and analytic metrics. Texas A&M’s portal class is, relative to the rest of the SEC, viewed as among the more aggressive in terms of star power.
In the past few seasons, having 5-6 impact transfers worked well; 8-10 it is more of a gamble. Chemistry, injuries, and coaching are all more unpredictable. Indiana has DeVries, who builds teams around cohesion rather than assembling a collection of skills. Texas A&M has McMillan, who, although lower level of competition, had successes with his teams at Samford.
Finding Betting Value Early
Where bettors can find value:
For early unofficial games on Indiana’s schedule, Indiana’s record may benefit from weaker nonconference tilts, as sportsbooks will likely set early lines on a new coach/roster poorly. Should Indiana’s early season shooting, particularly Wilkerson, Bailey, and DeVries, be proficient, from that underdog or moderate favorite status could yield some profits.
Concerning points and Indiana’s over-under on three-point makes, as Indiana’s roster is filled with shooters, the projection will be heavily influenced by the three-point shooting. Some games may go over projections, particularly if the defense is lacking. Texas A&M under McMillan could be a panicking point, thus overs may be undervalued.
Identifying vulnerabilities in Texas A&M’s defense may be an issue vs Physical Teams or agile Front Courts, especially on the Boards. Indiana may struggle with Power Forwards on the size and give up Second Chance Points. In the case of certain mismatches, early bets against them may work.
Public perception shifts with every win, Indiana stakes, or the strong performances by Isaacs or Mgbako. Adjustments will come. Precluding shifts in perception, which will move the line up, will be key.
Projecting the Season Ahead
Indiana’s win total: The value of the over/under might not exceed their reasonable strengths. Assuming no major injuries and improved chemistry, a 20-win season with 10-12 in the Big Ten is feasible. That could surpass booking projections if the opening lines are conservative.
Texas A&M’s ceiling: With McMillan, they might be able to push the NCAA Tournament bubble. If the guard play (Isaacs, maybe others) clicks, expect 18-22 wins with some signature wins in SEC home games. But losses on the road or against top 10 competition will test them.
Most likely, Indiana will experience different phases: bursts of hot nights followed by periods of cold slumps. Until consistency is established, prop bets may be more reliably offered for value (3-pointers made, player scoring bets) than spread bets.
Texas A&M’s defensive effort will determine if they over or underperform. They could surprise if they limit turnover and protect the rim. Otherwise, their overexposed games may make them a fade target in certain matchups.
Expert Betting Tips
Monitor 3–point shooting – Indiana’s roster is filled with strong shooters. If sportsbooks don’t adjust offensive totals or pace, there is likely profit on overs and 3-point props.
Monitor guard matchups – Texas A&M’s new backcourt may struggle against tough SEC defenses. Target games where their turnovers will spike and fade them in those spots.
Monitor rebounding battles – Both teams are weak to interior depth. Opponents with strong frontcourts may overpower them on the glass, profit on rebound props or spreads.
Attempt live wagering – The beginning of the season is the most prone to volatility; as a result, cohesive teams during this part of the season are at risk for in-game shifts. During the second half of the contest, if Indiana is considered a strong shooting team, yet is lagging, expected value bets in the second half can be misplaced.
Steer clear of overpriced favorites – Books tend to oversell their expected value for highly recognized teams before bond value, so it is more rational to support an underdog or neutral-site team until consistency is demonstrated.
Focus on the transfer player props – Proven scorers will include Wilkerson, Bailey, and Isaacs, and are much more reliable for props related to points and 3 pointers as opposed to full game outcomes during the initial stages of the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the transfer portal and why does it matter?
A: The transfer portal is a system allowing college basketball players to move from one school to another. It matters because teams can rebuild quickly by acquiring experienced players already proven in college games instead of relying solely on freshmen.
Q: How to Read and Beat NCAAB Odds with Sportsbook Insights?
A: Look at opening sportsbook online odds, public betting percentages, and injury or roster updates. Compare betting markets (spreads, totals, props). Identify where sportsbooks may underadjust: e.g., undervaluing new squads with good shooters or failing to price in chemistry risk. Bet early when value appears.
Q: When will Indiana start looking consistent?
A: More likely from the middle of the non-conference schedule into the early Big Ten games. Their performance should tighten once the rotation has stabilized (bench roles, starting units). Improvement should be expected defensively in the 8-10 game range.
Q: Does Texas A&M’s new coach increase risk for bettors?
A: Absolutely. A coaching change adds risk for the coverage of system execution, in-game adjustments, and recruiting pipelines, etc. But risk in the short run might be mitigated by better players over the long run. Early-season games are likely to show over/unders that are too sensitive.
Q: Where is value in betting Indiana vs the spread?
A: When Indiana is at home or on the road is a modest underdog or a favorite, and bets should be taken. If their shooting is good, spreads may be too aggressive for the favorite. Look for games where the books are more doubtful than they should be about Indiana’s cohesion.
Q: How do injuries or eligibility waivers play into evaluating these teams?
A: To a considerable extent. For instance, certain transfers require a waiver to gain immediate eligibility to play. Injuries can be particularly devastating on new rosters. Always consult eligibility reports; players on waivers or missing time are probably the most impactful to roster depth and betting value.
Q: What should a bettor expect in terms of scoring trends?
A: Increased scoring, particularly in nonconference play, on both sides; Indiana on 3’s, Texas A&M in pace. Hat, defense, rebounding, and turnovers will constrain the numbers somewhat. Be on the lookout for mismatches that elevate the total.
Q: Is there danger in overestimating transfer talent?
A: Absolutely. Transfers come with the baggage of unknowns; integration to a new system, more demanding conferences, team morale, and overall motivation. Not every player that shoots above average in one setting does the same in a higher level setting. Evaluation should be based on historical value added, not just raw points.
What Bettors Should Watch
Here’s what to lock in before placing your bets on college basketball online:
- Portals are no longer gimmick — they define rosters before tip-off. Indiana and Texas A&M are examples: every major piece on both is new. If they score well, it will likely be due to shooter transfers. If they falter, it’ll show on defense or size.
- Early line value is real. Books may underprice these new squads until a few games. That’s where opening lines or early season underdog spots offer profit.
- Player props might outperform team spreads early. When transfers like Wilkerson, Isaacs, Bailey have good matchups, their scoring and shooting props could be safer play than full-game outcomes.
- Watch trend setters: rebounding, turnovers, defensive consistency. These will separate overrated from underrated teams come December.
Looking forward: where Indiana and Texas A&M land in win totals and conference standings will hinge less on hype and more on how quickly they adapt. If their starts are strong, bettors who got in early have good odds of profit. For those ready to act, BetUS offers market lines already opening — key games in November and December are where value is likely highest.
