Let’s not beat around the bush: this could be the final year that we witness Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in tandem in Kansas City. The Mahomes-Kelce bond is one of the most fruitful and dynamic connections in the history of the NFL, and that is not an exaggeration in any shape or form. However, there are now telling indicators everywhere we look. Age, contracts, new players being moved around behind the scenes–it all signals some form of change. And some of the major NFL sportsbooks online are already incorporating that uncertainty into their existing numbers.
Let’s focus on Kelce first. Age 35, and over a decade within the league. He remains productive, and his yardage has decreased. A career low. He’s not looking like he is washed up, just a little older. And he has publicly stated that it’s crossed his mind: retirement. Not dramatically, but more like a soft acknowledgment. He is under contract until the end of the season, which means he has one season left.
Now zoom out. The Chiefs are looking at other tight ends, for example, Michael Mayer from the Raiders. That rumor is true. The staff is not standing by to be blindsided. They are making preparations now. That tells you everything. They notice the opportunity, and that opportunity could be disappearing.
At the same time, the team confirmed Mahomes’ status—he’s locked in. No questions asked. He is not going anywhere and will be in Kansas City in 2026, 2027, and beyond. So this isn’t about a rebuild. It’s about one player transitioning, and the rest adapting.
And let’s discuss betting. If you’re betting on Chiefs futures, Super Bowl props, or Mahomes passing yards, this is not background noise. This impacts figures. Odds. Value. With Kelce’s reduction in performance, he can be caused to be replaced by someone, or Mahomes can adjust, which creates opportunity for those bettors that adjust ahead of the market.
Kelce’s Body Isn’t Lying
Check the tape. He didn’t stretch the field in the ways he used to last season. His targets in the red zone were lower. With increased focus from defenses, he wasn’t getting as much separation. This isn’t a collapse—this is a natural progression. Tight ends age like fine wine, poorly. Every route run is taking a toll. And at 35, even the best starts showing wear.
He missed a couple of practices. Maintenance days. The Chiefs didn’t panic, but they changed his role. More chip blocks. Short passes. The deep middle game that used to destroy teams? Less of that.
So when sportsbooks set his receiving yard prop around 800 or 850, there’s hesitation. It’s not about his skills on the field; it’s about how he’s used. That’s something bettors should pay attention to. If limited preseason reps are reported, hit the under and do it early.
Mahomes Won’t Collapse—but His Numbers Could Shift
Make no mistake—Mahomes can deal with this. He isn’t merely a system QB; he’s the system. It’s not like the system will break because the chemistry is off. You can’t just add a new tight end and expect it to work seamlessly right away.
If Kelce’s role diminishes, Mahomes will most likely start to rely more on his other tight ends and receivers. Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy will get increased targets. Maybe a running back takes on the role of a pass catcher. But every single one of them fails to capture Kelce’s dependability on third downs and in the red zone.
So, if you’re wagering on Mahomes’ season-long props—passing yards, touchdowns, MVP—just remember: they’re still favorable bets, but now a little more volatile. Volume may be high, but efficiency could take a hit. If the timing is off early in the year, the Chiefs risk starting slow. That affects win totals, seeding, playoff props—everything.
NFL Prop Betting Gets Complicated
Here is where NFL prop betting can become complex. If you prefer to wager on receiving yards, touchdowns, or completions—pretty much anything that’s player-centric—you have to keep your wits about you.
With Kelce, the advantage is often in the timing. If he tends to start the season strong, sportsbooks may overvalue his props. Conversely, if he appears limited in preseason or takes a light camp schedule, there are some early overs that will hit easily.
Same goes for the rest of the team. If the distribution of targets changes, props on Rice or Worthy become profitable. Mahomes could still throw for over 4,500 yards, but who he dials those passes to alters everything for the players.
Watch snap counts. Target share. Game script. Not just headlines.
Chiefs Are Preparing for Life After Kelce
Mayer’s rumors didn’t just come out of thin air. They have a potential succession plan for Kelce—and that starts now. Even if he decides to stick around for one more season, the team’s outlook is much longer. You don’t go shopping for a high-upside tight end if you think your current guy is set for three more seasons.
Mayer, if traded for, will be eased into the rotation. But the moment Kelce departs or severely reduces his workload, Mayer will receive more snaps. Especially if the Chiefs secure a top seed in the playoffs and choose to rest veterans, that makes him intriguing as a late-season prop bet.
Bettors need to monitor the talk coming out of training camp. Who’s earning first string? Is Kelce absent from practices? Are they focusing on two tight end formations more? These questions pose valuable answers.
Watch the Schedule
The start of the season is brutal. Week 1: Chargers. Week 2: Eagles rematch. You couldn’t write a tenser open to the year. If Kelce’s slow or Mahomes has to adapt on the fly, the Chiefs can stumble out the gate. Not a full-blown crisis, but enough to impact standings and futures.
Super Bowl odds take a nosedive if they lose two out of the first three. That’s a buying opportunity—if you think they’ll sort it out.
Also: public betting will overreact. It’s easy to fall for this trick. It’s not just the public that reacts—full-blown overreaction is something that can easily be predicted.
What the Books Are Watching
Sportsbooks aren’t guessing. They’re tracking player usage, injury history, and media signals. The moment Kelce says something vague about “considering retirement,” lines shift.
Same with practice reports. If he’s getting vet rest days? That goes in the model. If he misses time in preseason? Models adjust. If Mayer suddenly gets ten targets in a scrimmage? Props on him go live.
So be early. Don’t wait for ESPN to tell you Kelce’s trending down. If you’re betting props or building parlays, you need to see that stuff coming.
Don’t Sleep on Rice or Worthy
If you’re looking for upside, here it is. Rashee Rice had breakout potential last year and could easily become WR1 if Kelce fades. He’s physical, fast, and already has Mahomes’ trust. Expect a big bump in targets.
Worthy is the wild card. Rookie, elite speed, still raw. But the Chiefs didn’t draft him to sit. He’s going to get used—especially on deep routes. And if Mahomes doesn’t have Kelce to hit underneath, you might see more bombs early in the season.
Both guys will show up on prop boards for yardage and touchdowns. Watch the value early. Don’t be surprised if one of them starts stealing the show.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is The Importance and Role of In-Game Analytics in Superbowl Sportsbook Betting?
A: It lets bettors react to real-time info—who’s hot, who’s getting targets, how defenses are adjusting. In Superbowl sportsbook betting, that’s exactly how sharp bettors gain an edge during live wagering.
Q: When is the Chiefs–Eagles 2025 rematch?
A: Week 2. At Arrowhead. Super Bowl rematch. High-stakes. Expect lines to move fast based on Week 1 performance.
Q: Is Kelce actually going to retire after 2025?
A: He hasn’t said yes or no. But age, contract timing, and body language suggest it’s possible. You shouldn’t bet on him being around in 2026.
Q: What happens to Mahomes’ production if Kelce’s gone?
A: It likely shifts to other targets. His total passing yards may stay steady, but red zone efficiency could drop without Kelce.
Q: Who benefits most on the roster if Kelce steps back?
A: Rashee Rice becomes a prime option. Xavier Worthy gets deep shots. If Mayer joins, he could be the long-term replacement.
If This Is It, Bet Smart
Assuming this is Kelce’s final season—and all signs say it might be—don’t wait until December to adjust. Betting value shows up early. Preseason reports matter. Snap counts matter. Target shares tell the story before sportsbooks catch up.
This isn’t a nostalgia tour. It’s a data-driven opportunity to get ahead of the market before it adjusts. Kelce might ball out one more time. Or he might fade fast. Either way, how you bet on the Chiefs—especially in prop markets—should change now.
Mahomes is still elite. The Chiefs are still a threat. But they’re evolving. Bet with that in mind.
