Virginia vs. Notre Dame Football Odds and Betting Analysis

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish College Football Betting Odds and Picks
  • by Anthony Carpenter
  • September 26th, 2019
  • Category:

The No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 12.5-point home faves over the No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers, according to legal betting websites, for the Week 4 (Week 5 for Virginia) NCAA football game on September 28 at 3:30 pm ET at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish GTBets Sportsbook Odds

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Virginia +12½ (-110) 48½ (-110) +380
Notre Dame 12½ (-110 48½ (-110) -475
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Betting Virginia Cavaliers

The Cavs beat Old Dominion 28-17 as, per the best online sportsbooks, 27-point home chalk, on Saturday. UVA was outgained by 26 yards. The Cavaliers even committed more penalties and lost more yards as a result of those penalties. Kicker Brian Delaney even missed Virginia’s lone field goal attempt. How did the Cavs win this game? Like Alec Guinness would say in A Bridge on the River Kwai, I haven’t the foggiest. It may have had something to do with their defense, though. Linebacker Zane Zandier returned a 22-yard pick-six. Fellow linebacker Charles Snowden had a game-high 15 tackles. As well as two of the five sacks on opposing quarterback Stone Smartt. And so on and so forth. No surprise there; the Cavaliers rank 14th in the country in total defense. They allow just 18 points and 75 rushing yards per game.

According to legal betting websites, UVA is 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing independents. 13-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall. And 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

Betting Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish are coming off a 17-23 loss to Georgia. However, as 16-point road dogs, ND successfully covered the point spread. Starting QB Ian Book went 29 of 47 for 275 yards with two TDs and two picks. Wide receiver Cole Kmet posted 108 yards and one TD on nine receptions. All things considered, not a horrible performance. The Fighting Irish remain a top 25 passing offense (300.7 yards per game). On the other hand, the run game was indeed horrible. The Irish only gained a piss-poor 46 rushing yards (what I like to call ‘tard yards). As could be expected, that wasn’t good enough for even a lousy touchdown. ND ranks 85th in ground yards per game (144.3). Additionally, Notre Dame committed 12 penalties for a loss for 85 yards.

Legal betting websites trends say the Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home. 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September. 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win. And 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games playing a team with a winning road record.

Reportedly, ND players emulated soccer stars, “faking injuries in an attempt to slow the Dawgs down offensively.” Shame on you! Not for cheating, mind you, but for cheating in such a, you know, stunningly stupid manner. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly dismissed the accusations. “[Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah] was evaluated for a concussion,” he said. “He was brought to the tent. So, that’s hard to be booing at a young man who suffered an evaluation for a concussion. Quite honestly, Georgia doesn’t play very fast, so I found that to be quite interesting there would be a number of questions on something like that.” Ok. So that means, quite honestly, that you got beat by a slow team.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Game Prediction

The Notre Dame offense that we saw against Georgia doesn’t stand a chance versus Virginia’s defense. People who backed the Irish last weekend got lucky ND managed to cover the spread. Those same people may not want to push their luck.