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Shevchenko is a massive favorite at the best UFC gambling sites. Valentina Shevchenko (23-3, 12-2 UFC) will be defending her women’s flyweight championship belt versus the sixth-ranked challenger Alexa Grasso (15-3, 7-3 UFC).

UFC 285 Shevchenko vs. Grasso Odds by MyBookie

FighterOdds
Grasso+525
Shevchenko-750


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Betting Alexa Grasso

Like many a Mexican fighter, Alexa Grasso keeps a tight guard. She insulates herself from many attacks on her feet. Also she rather crisp when it comes to her footwork. She can be very patient with her strikes, biding her time for the right moment.

From a pure boxing perspective, this fight with Shevchenko is going to be close. The problem is that there’s no way that “Bullet” will take her chances standing up. Grasso’s 64% takedown defense can be exploited, and Shevchenko is going to try to clinch and trip her foe as soon as she gets the opportunity.

Valentina on top is bad news for Grasso. Wrestler types have been giving Grasso fits in past years (she has lost to Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza), and if this bout goes to the mat and remains there, Shevchenko is going to have an easy win.

Grasso was slated to fight Ji Yeon Kim on June 27, 2020 at UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker. However, as a result of travel restrictions for both fighters because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fight was rescheduled on August 29, 2020 at UFC Fight Night 175.

She went on to win the fight by unanimous decision. Grasso faced Maycee Barber at UFC 258. She won via unanimous decision. Grasso was setto face Joanne Wood at UFC Fight Night 198. However, she pulled out from the event with injury.

Grasso was projected to face Viviane Araújo on January 22, 2022 at UFC 270. However, the latter was forced to withdraw from the event with an injury, and the fight was cancelled. Grasso fought Joanne Wood in a re-scheduled match on March 26, 2022 at UFC on ESPN 33.

Betting Valentina Shevchenko

The 34-year-old woman is the 2nd-greatest female UFC fighter ever (she has lost only to Amanda Nunes), and she’s a freak of nature with her ground-and-pound offensive. This fight with Grasso is a textbook example of Shevchenko having great strength in areas that Grasso is very weak.

It might be just a matter of time before the Kyrgyzstanian gets Grasso in the dreaded crucifix position and wails on her for a stoppage win. Grasso is not a slouch, and she has one submission win to her name, but she is going to be outmatched on Saturday. Even if Shevchenko is bouncing back from a disappointing performance versus Taila Santos.

A highly regarded kickboxer, Valentina Shevchenko is mostly known for accurate counter-striking. She has been recognized for her great ability to measure the distance of a foe’s attack, then retaliate with an assortment of counterattacks.

In a 2017 interview, Shevchenko pointed out the challenges of honing this technique in mixed martial arts: “It’s different to fight a wrestler and stand-up fighter. To feel the distance of her punch, it’s different.”

After she dodges an opponent’s strike, Shevchenko will frequently counter with a quick right hook, a spinning wheel kick, or a spinning back fist. On the offensive, she often makes use of forwarding right hooks and two-punch combos.

She also employs an outside leg kick that she regularly throws at the end of a flurry, or in the initial stages of a round. In addition to her strikes, Shevchenko is also a very skilled grappler. She has a black belt in Judo, as shown by her several take-downs against Holly Holm and Jéssica Andrade, her armbar submission over Julianna Peña, and her rear-naked choke submission against Priscila Cachoeira.

UFC 285 Shevchenko vs. Grasso Pick

The -700 line on Shevchenko is well placed at the best online sportsbooks. Perhaps Grasso defends a few takedowns, but we do not picture a scenario wherein Shevchenko does not have a huge edge in control time.

From there, what we need to do is weigh where to place our wagers. The best gambling sites’ odds are at -125 for the bout to finish UNDER 3.5 rounds and -163 to finish within the distance. It is clear that the books are expecting Shevchenko to be crushing Grasso. We do not disagree.

Because Grasso is inexperienced on the mat (compared to Shevchenko’s strength in that aread), our official prediction is for Valentina to win the match inside the distance (-125) and do the deed UNDER 4.5 rounds (-150).

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