Trump vs. Biden Betting: Are Things Getting Tight?
Has there ever been a more bizarre or contentious presidential election in your lifetime? I wonder whether they will be talking about this fifty years from now. And I can’t imagine what they will be saying. Remember when the Democrats trotted out two dozen (at least) candidates for their nomination? It didn’t look like a difficult slog for Donald Trump to win re-election, at least in some peoples’ minds.
But there have been a lot of game-changing things in the meantime. The pandemic, the riots, the looting. The issue of police brutality taking front and center. An impeachment proceeding. And what appears to be a concerted effort from much of the mainstream media to affect their own influence on the outcome.
BetOnline has Joe Biden as the favorite….
And this is no surprise.
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Trump vs. Biden – Are there signs similar to 2016?
Hillary Clinton was ahead in many of the states that Trump “stole” from her four years ago. This included “swing” states that decided the election. The odds are -550 against him winning all the same states he won in the ’16 election. And it is -210 that he will LOSE every state that he lost. In other words, he won’t flip states and put them in his column.
The Trump campaign has explained that the information they were getting from their own polls was quite different than that which was reported to the public in 2016. We don’t know if that is the case again, because they don’t reveal what their internal polling says. That’s understandable.
But there is every reason to believe the concept that there may be a lot of people being polled by the more mainstream organizations who may not be so vocal about their support of Trump. Or perhaps not all the right people have been reached at all. Trump and his people talk about the “Silent Majority.” They came through in 2016. Are they going to come through now?
They’re actually not so silent when it comes to their in-person support. Trump has been playing to crowded rallies for the last four years. There is almost always a packed or near-packed house. And huge crowds meet the president at the airport. By contrast, very sparse crowds attend Biden rallies. How much does that actually mean?
Trump vs. Biden – Can polls be deceiving?
A poll connected to NBC (part of what Trump calls the “liberal media”) had him trailing by ten points (52%-42%). But there is contrasting information elsewhere.
The IBD/TIPP poll, as of Monday, has Biden leading by a 48.8% to 45.6% margin. That differs from the 50%-45.4% gap he had on October 28. There is a 3.2-point margin of error, so Trump may be in a position to close even more by the time everyone goes to the polls.
There is a reason the IBD/TIPP poll should be taken seriously. Four years ago the Clinton supporters were ready to celebrate what they thought was a walkover victory. But that’s not what THIS poll said. In fact, they forecast a Trump win, because he was ahead according to their information.
There is some other variance elsewhere. For example, a consensus poll from Real Clear Politics has Trump at 13% with African-Americans. That would represent an improvement on his 8% from 2016. But a Marist Poll result has him with 18% support from the African-American community.
Trump vs. Biden – Popular Vote vs. Electoral Vote
After the 2016 election, cries were heard from the Democratic side about the illegitimacy of Trump’s win. Why? Because he did not win the popular vote. Those arguments were specious at best, because, well, the electoral college is constitutionally mandated.
This year, if Trump does indeed pull an electoral college upset, we’ll have a controversy. That’s because he is likely to lose the popular vote. In fact, Biden is -650 to win the popular vote. The price is -260 that the winner of the popular vote will also win the electoral college. If you like Biden, maybe that’s the better way to go.
BetOnline has a thorough menu of election odds that will challenge you. We know you’re going to vote, and we hope that you do. But you can get some extra enjoyment out of it, along with an extra payout if you have the winner. Check all of those out, as well as Odds Booster, which offer greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays.