The San Francisco 49ers have a rich Super Bowl history, winning the “Big Game” five times. The Kansas City Chiefs have a Super Bowl win to their credit, but they have not been back to the title game in 50 years.
Do trends and history mean anything when handicapping this game? Maybe not. But it is well worth investigating nonetheless. So we will discuss it for you.
And by the way, Super Bowl 54 takes place on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Kickoff is at 6:30 PM ET, and BetAnySports allows you to place wagers in real-time with the help of Sports Betting Ultra. They also have more props on the game than you could possibly imagine.
This is the point spread and total that is posted by the folks at BetAnySports:
Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Odds
|49ers||+1 (-110)||54½ (-110)||EV|
|Chiefs||-1 (-110)||54½ (-110)||-120|
Super Bowl trends
Super Bowl favorites have not done well. In fact, they have covered just five of the last 16 games. And underdogs have won five of the last seven Super Bowls straight-up. So this bodes well for the 49ers.
Going back to Super Bowl 37, the AFC has had a slight edge in terms of straight-up victories, going 10-7. However, they have been on the negative side of the ledger against the spread (7-10 ATS) during that time.
Super Bowl history
On an overall basis throughout Super Bowl history, favorites have gone 34-18 straight-up. This takes into account that in one of the games, the closing line was a pick’em (no favorite). There is not a whole lot of bias, and no big edge with big point spreads. Favorites of ten points or more have gone 7-6-1 against the number.
There have been 26 “overs” and 25 “unders” as far as totals are concerned, with one tie. There was no total listed for Super Bowl I, when the game wasn’t even commonly called the Super Bowl.
For many years, blowouts had been the rule rather than the exception. Of the first 31 SB’s, 23 of them ended in double-digit margins. In the 53 Super Bowl games thus far, 24 of them have been decided by 14 points or more (45.3%). But that applies to only three of the last 16 games. Eight of the 53 Super Bowl games have been decided by anywhere from one to three points.
Ten defensive players have won the Super Bowl MVP award. There’s another thing that is interesting to note. In a game where the game’s two best tight ends are featured, no one at that position has been a Super Bowl MVP.
San Francisco 49ers trends
San Francisco had an 11-6-1 point spread record this season. They have covered six of their last eight games. They have played nine of their last 12 games over the total. It can be argued that the oddsmakers have caught up to their style of play. But there has been a regression of sorts in their defense’s ability to prevent points as well. In their first seven games of the season, they never allowed more than 20 points. Over their last eleven games, they have yielded more than 20 points seven times and exactly 20 points twice.
The Niners have covered all five times they have been an underdog this season.
Over a 14-year period, the Niners won five Super Bowls without losing. But that last win was Super Bowl 29. In SB 47, they lost a 34-31 decision to the Baltimore Ravens.
Kansas City Chiefs trends
The Chiefs have compiled a 12-5-1 record against the point spread, which is the NFL’s best. They are currently on a run where they have won and covered their last eight contests.
Since Patrick Mahomes has become their starting quarterback, they have lost only ONE game where the opponent scored less than 20 points. That happened this season, when the Indianapolis Colts controlled things on the ground. Indy had 180 yards on 45 carries (four yards a carry), and had 37 minutes of possession in a 19-13 victory.
Head coach Andy Reid has been an outstanding coach coming out of a bye week. He says he can’t explain it, but he gets results anyway. Reid is 23-4 straight-up with an extra week to prepare. And that also converts to an 18-9 point spread record.
In Super Bowl IV, the Chiefs came into their game with the Minnesota Vikings as 12.5-point underdogs. And this was despite the fact that the New York Jets had already established the credibility of the AFL with their win over the Baltimore Colts the year before. Kansas City, which won that game 23-7, has not been back to the Super Bowl since.
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