Colts vs. Chiefs NFL Divisional Playoffs Key Betting Tips Analysis

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Divisional Playoffs Odds and Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-points home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts, according to the best sports betting sites. The Chiefs secured their third straight AFC West championship with a 35-3 win over the Oakland Raiders in Week 17. As a result, they also clinched a first round bye and home advantage during the postseason. Meanwhile, the Colts eliminated the Houston Texans 21-7 in their wild card game. Indy were 1.5-point road dogs in that one, per the best online sportsbooks. The Colts once and future starting QB Andrew Luck passed for 222 yards with two TDs and one pick. A modest effort, though there’s no denying Indy’s return to relevance is not a matter of luck, but of Luck. Additionally, the Colts offensive line didn’t allow one sack. And running back Marlon Mack had one TD on 148 yards on the ground.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs – NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting

  • Date: January 12, 2019
  • Time: 3:35 p.m. CST
  • Venue: Arrowhead Stadium


Odds from MyBookie.ag:

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Colts +5½ (-104) 57 (-106) +199
Chiefs -5½ (-116) 57 (-114) -240
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Betting Indianapolis

Luck had 39 TDs on 4593 passing yards in 16 regular season games. The Colts scored almost five more points per game since Mack stopped missing games in Week 6. On defense, Indy ranks No. 10 in scoring defense, allowing just 21.5 points per game. And No. 8 in run defense, yielding 101.6 yards on the ground per game. According to the best sports betting sites, the Colts are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as dogs of at least three points.

Betting Kansas City

Pat ‘Arm-ageddon’ Mahomes threw 50 TD passes on 5097 yards through the air. Those are dizzying numbers right there. I get lightheaded just writing them. The second-year QB helped the Chiefs lead the NFL in points (35.3) and total yards (425.6) per game. If only they had a Mahomes-caliber defensive player. It’s their bad Luck that only one other team had a worst pass defense in the league.

Betting Trends

  • Colts are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
  • Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win
  • Kansas City is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points


Our Game Prediction: The Colts are trending upward while the Chiefs were trending downward the last time we saw them. According to the best sports betting sites, Indy is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games. On the other hand, Kansas City 4-3 SU, and more importantly, 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven. Luck averaged 287.0 passing yards per game during the regular season. The Chiefs allowed 273.4 yards through the air, which was next –to-last, in the regular season. I would fade Kansas City in a heartbeat if Alex Smith was still their starting QB. But there is a reason the Chiefs kicked Smith to the curb inn favor of Mahomes. KC has history of chocking in the playoffs. But I’m going to give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt.