Chiefs vs. Jaguars NFL Week 1 Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

Kansas City Chiefs Season betting odds, picks and expert predictions
  • by Matt Stevens
  • September 4th, 2019
  • Category:

The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5 road favorites to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to top online betting sites. Four points may seem stingy on the part of the best online sportsbooks. After all this is Patrick ‘Armed and Dangerous’ Mahomes and the Chiefs we’re talking about, right? No. 1 in points scored (35.3) and total yards (425.6) per game in 2018. As well as 3rd in passing yards (309.7) per game. That begs the question, though, how come Kansas City only covered the point spread in 56.2% of their regular season games? And the answer is that former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton was lousy at his job.

Only one other team in the NFL gave up more total and passing yards than the Chiefs last season. And of 15 teams that scored more points than they allowed, only one had a worst point differential than KC. Riddle me this; how can a team that scores 51 points in a single game still manage to lose it? A better question; why did the Chiefs not go all the way last year? Because they were a half-ass team. And this offseason they did a half-ass job of finding a new DC.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Week 1 Betting Information

  • Date: Sunday September 8
  • Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Venue: TIAA Bank Field

Odds from MyBookie.ag:

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Chiefs -3 (-120) 51½ (-109) -175
Jaguars +3 (EV) 51½ (-111) +151
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Betting Kansas City Chiefs

Something has just occurred to me. I don’t think the Chiefs know what a defensive coordinator is or what they’re supposed to do. Sometimes when they make a book into a movie, they include some characters just because they were in the book. I think Kansas City sees every other team has a defensive coordinator, so they get one just for appearances’ sake. But they cannot for the life of them figure out why. The only other DC gig Sutton had held prior to KC was with the New York Jets from 2006-2008. The Jets allowed more than 20 points per game in two of those three seasons.

Back to the present. The Chiefs knew Sutton was doing something wrong – and thus fired him – but don’t appear to know what that was. Because they went and hired Steven ‘Esteban El Español’ Spagnuolo. He was defensive coordinator in New Orleans in 2012. The Saints yielded 28.4 points per game and ranked last in scoring defense. And the New York Giants ranked last and next-to-last in the same category in 2015 and 2017. Two of the three years during which Spagnuolo was their DC. At the end of the 2017 season he was rightfully sacked along with head coach Ben McAdoo. None of this bodes well for the Chiefs as far as covering the top online betting sites’ spread.

Betting Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike the Chiefs, the Jags know how to play D. Defensive coordinator Todd Wash called a defense that ranked 2nd in passing yards per game in 2018 (194.6). And 4th in points per game (19.8), and 5th in total yards per game (311.4). Outside linebacker Telvin Smith had 134 total tackles last season. He’s returning. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue had 9½ sacks. He’s returning. Jax’s offense on the other hand was one of the worst. However, we can chalk that up to Blake Bortles. And he’s not returning.

Expert Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1

Kansas City went from bad to worse in the defensive coordinator department. The position is nothing more than a sinecure for the Chiefs. Head coach Andy Reid obviously gives exactly zero fucks about defense. His strategy last year was scoring as many points as possible and they pray the other team settled for field goals. And it doesn’t seem like that’s going to change in 2019. It sure helps to have Mahomes starting under center. Then again, he who lives by the sword dies by the sword. Last season, the sword was the New England Patriots. The Jags won’t stop KC in their tracks like the Pats did. But with their defense and without Bortles – and with Nick Foles – they can cover the top online betting sites’ spread.