Bills vs. Cowboys NFL Thanksgiving Betting Analysis and Picks

Dallas Cowboys Season betting odds, predictions and analysis
  • by Cooper Mayer
  • November 26th, 2019
  • Category:

The Dallas Cowboys are 6.5 home faves over the Buffalo Bills, as the online sports betting USA spread goes for their Week 13 NFL football game on November 28 at 3:30 p.m. CT at AT&T Stadium.

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Odds by MyBookie.ag

Team SP/RL TOTAL ML
Bills +6½ (-110) 45 (-110) +259
Cowboys -6½ (-110) 45 (-110) -319
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Betting Buffalo Bills

The Bills posted back-to-back wins and covers in Weeks 11 and 12. In the latter they beat the Denver Broncos 20-3 as 3.5-point home favorites, according to the best online sportsbooks. It’s the third time this season Buffalo’s third-ranked scoring defense holds opponents to single-digits. The Bills also rank third in the league in total (288.6 ypg) and pass defense (184.3 ypg). Starting QB Josh Allen went 15 of 25 for 185 yards with two TDs and one pick.

Additionally, running back Devin Singletary had 106 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo is fifth in the NFL with 139.2 rushing yards per game. The Bills outgained the Broncos 424 to 134 total yards. And held the Broncos to just 49 yards passing and 85 yards rushing. Would it be too cliché to say the Bills tame those wild horses?

Buffalo is, per online sports betting USA trends, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after allowing fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after a straight up win of more than 14 points. And 4-1 ATS in their last five road games playing a team with a winning home record.

“It’s safe to say the Bills defensive line is doing its job. They disrupted Denver quarterback Brandon Allen all game holding him to under 100 yards passing. Not to mention they held Denver’s rushing attack of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman to 77 yards. The defense allowed 134 yards on Sunday – the team’s lowest total since a 2013 game against the Miami Dolphins.

With four sacks on Sunday, combined with seven last week at Miami the Bills have 11 in a two-game span for the first time since recording 12 during games 10-11 in 2014,” gloats the Bills’ official website.

Betting Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a 9-13 loss to the New England Patriots as 5.5-point road dogs. As a result, they managed to cover the online sports betting USA spread. As expected, Dallas’ solid defense – it ranks 6th in points, total yards, and passing yards allowed per game – contained the Pats’ gun-shy offense.

Also as expected, the Dak Pak ran into a brick wall. It’s the first time the Boys’ 6th-ranked scoring offense (26.8 ppg) has been held to single digits this season. Nonetheless, Dallas’ total and passing offense remain the best in the league.

They average 433.4 all-purpose and 303.5 air yards per game. The Cowboys outgained the Pats both through the air and on the ground. Unfortunately, that means fuck-all if you don’t put points on the board. Can’t win games on field goals alone. Well, you can, but you shouldn’t.

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games on FieldTurf. 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. And are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games playing a team with a winning road record.

“It’s frustrating to me to just be reminded that some of the fundamentals of football and coaching were what beat us out there today,” the Cowboys owner said. “I’m just really frustrated. We can’t come up here and play like that.” Head coach Jason Garrett’s contract expires after this season and looks like it won’t be revived.

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Week 13 Pick

New England demonstrated what a good defense – and special teams – can do to Dallas’ vaunted offense. And Buffalo has a pretty good defense. I think it’s a safe bet to fade the Cowboys.