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Betting Outback Bowl Predictions: Mississippi State vs. Iowa

2019 Outback Bowl Best Bets and Predictions - Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are seven-point favorites over the Iowa Hawkeyes, according to top online betting sites. MSU finished fourth in the SEC West division, going 8-4 (4-4 in conference play). As well as 8-4 against the spread. The Bulldogs wrapped their season with a 35-3 win over Mississippi as 12.5-point road favorites. This will MSU’s ninth straight bowl appearance, first Outback Bowl, and first bowl game with head coach Joe Moorehead.

Iowa finished fourth in the Big Ten West division, tallying eight wins and dropping four games (5-4 in conference play). The Hawkeyes additionally went 7-5 ATS, per the best online sportsbooks. They closed their regular season with a 31-28 win over Nebraska as 7.5-point home faves. This will be Iowa’s fifth straight bowl appearance and sixth Outback Bowl.

Betting Mississippi State

“We are excited to accept a bid to our first Outback Bowl to cap off Joe Moorhead’s successful first season as our head football coach,” MSU Director of Athletics John Cohen said. “This team featured college football’s best defense and demonstrated overall improvement throughout the year, as shown by winning four of its last five games, including a dominant win in a rivalry game to finish the regular season.”

Starting QB Nick Fitzgerald has 15 TDs and seven picks on 1615 passing yards. Fitzgerald has also rushed for 12 TDs and 1018 yards on 201 attempts. He completes 52.6% of his passes. Stephen Guidry and Osirus Mitchell have a combined 774 yards on 42 catches.

The under is 23-9 in the Bulldogs’ last 32 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Betting Iowa

Starting QB Nathan Stanley has 23 TDs and nine picks on 2638 yards through the air. He is completing 58.5% of his passes. TJ Hockenson has 717 yards on 46 receptions. Mekhi ‘Pfeiffer’ Sargent and Toren Young have combined for 1378 yards on 285 carries. According to top online betting sites, the under is 7-3 in the Hawkeyes’ last 10 non-conference games. And 9-4 in their last 13 neutral site games.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Iowa Hawkeyes –  Outback Bowl Betting Preview

  • Date: January 1
  • Time: 11:00 a.m. CT
  • Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL (Outback Bowl)

Odds from BetOnline.ag:

  • Iowa +7 -108 o +230 o Ov 44 -107
  • Mississippi State -7 -112 o -275 o Un 44 -113

Betting Trends

  • Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game
  • Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
  • Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
  • Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games
  • Hawkeyes are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games
  • Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass

Our Game Prediction:
These two teams are defensive powerhouse. MSU is No. 3 in total defense (268.4 yards allowed per game). Iowa is No. 7 (289.6). The Bulldogs are 6th defending the pass (164.2 passing yards allowed per game). The Hawkeyes are 24th (186.8). Iowa is No. 7 against the run (102.8 rushing yards allowed per game). MSU is No. 10 (104.3). Finally, the Bulldogs have the best scoring defense in the country (12.0 points allowed per game). Iowa is 11th (17.4). Since MSU has the better defense I’m going to have to side with them. Users of the top online betting sites can be assured of one thing, though. The total is all but guaranteed to go under the 44 points.